An in-depth exploration of the data science behind Messi's movements on the field and the use of statistical theories to decode football tactics, as well as why Big Data still cannot completely conquer the spirit of entertainment in football.
Wired magazine presented an article titled Why Soccer Still Defies Statistical Analysis, which in Thai translates to why football is a sport that statistical principles cannot fully explain.
Luke Bornn, a data scientist specializing in motion, and Javier Fernández have attempted to quantify the intangible aspects of football by publishing research on creating open spaces using player-tracking technology.
An interesting point is the analysis of Lionel Messi's behavior, where the research found thatMessioften"walks"on the field, not out of laziness, but as an intentional tactic to approach and control open spaces.
Bornn concluded that Messi can gain more advantage from walking than other players do from running at full speed, shifting the perspective from criticizing his effort to appreciating his tactical approach.
Sarah Rudd, former head of analysis at Arsenal Football Club, is another pioneer who applied the statistical tool"Markov Chains"to evaluate every action on the field beyond just goals or assists.
This concept is based on Andrey Markov, a Russian mathematician from 1906, who believed that future events depend on the current state of the system.
Rudd used this principle to divide the football field into 39 states to calculate the probabilities of subsequent events. However, she acknowledged that football is not linear nor neatly divided into squares, as the field's space is ambiguous and changes with the tactical tendencies of the head coach or manager continuously.
Despite the vast amount of data, ultimately science has not found a way to fully use numbers to conquer the art of football, because football is a discipline with high uncertainty, similar to the theory of"a blanket that is too short."For example, if you try to cover one part of the body too much, there will be uncovered areas. Similarly, in football, if players push too high up the field, open spaces will appear, increasing the risk of being attacked by opponents.
Additionally, football itself contains philosophical conflicts. For example, football master Johan Cruyff believed players must keep possession of the ball as a natural state, whereas José Mourinho viewed possession as a source of fear. Mourinho’s approach is to wait for the opponent to make a mistake and then seize that opportunity. Thus, the beauty of football lies in its unpredictable contradictions, which even the most detailed player-tracking data cannot fully unravel.
In the end, although data helps clarify the structure of the sport, analysts like Rudd and Bornn see football as an entertainment industry, whose fun lies in preserving the elements that mathematical equations still cannot predict.
Source:Wired