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Analyst Predicts Limited Initial Supply of iPhone Ultra

Tech07 Jul 2026 15:50 GMT+7

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Analyst Predicts Limited Initial Supply of iPhone Ultra

The iPhone Ultra, Apple's first foldable smartphone set to debut this September, may have a limited quantity of approximately only 1 million units.

Ming-Chi Kuo, a well-known supply chain analyst, revealed that the iPhone Ultra, Apple's first foldable phone expected to launch this September, might face a 1-2 month delay in availability, similar to the situation with the iPhone X in 2017.

The iPhone Ultra, a provisional name for now, will have a 5.5-inch outer screen and a 7.8-inch inner screen when unfolded, roughly the size of an iPad mini. Additionally,when the device is unfolded,it will be less than 5 millimeters thick, making it thinner than the iPhone Air. Its price is expected to range between $2,300 and $2,500 (approximately 77,000–84,000 baht).

However, when Apple launches the foldable iPhone in September, it is expected to be hard to find. Kuo's report states that smartphone industry surveys estimate that production and shipments of foldable iPhones in the second half of 2026 will be around 7-8 million units, with only 0.5-1 million units shipped in Q3 2026, about 10% of the total.

Meanwhile, the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max are expected to ship about 20-22 million units in the same quarter, far exceeding the foldable iPhone's numbers and sufficient to meet stock demands for their official launch.

Given these figures, Apple will produce no more than 8 million foldable iPhones by the end of this year, with only up to 1 million units ready for sale in Q3. This makes it very likely that the September release will not see immediate availability, similar to the iPhone X case in 2017 which launched but was sold later.

Regardless of the actual release date, with such limited supply, it is expected to be very difficult for consumers to purchase the device.

Kuo estimates that delivery times for the iPhone Ultra could extend to 4-6 weeks or more, with consumers likely facing difficulty obtaining the device until at least December 2026. He also predicts resale prices could be 50-100% higher than the official retail price.

Therefore, for those wanting a foldable iPhone, the best chance to get one near launch is to preorder as early as possible. Because Q3 shipments are very limited, consumers should not expect to easily buy one directly from stores.

Kuo expects that the initial launch hype and supply issues will begin to ease by the first quarter of 2027, allowing a clearer view of the true demand for foldable iPhones.

.Source:9to5Mac