Prediction Markets, also known as future forecasting markets, allow anyone interested to "invest" by predicting events they care about—whether economic, global, sports, or even weather-related—and to earn real returns if their predictions are correct.
Once Shayne Coplan founder and CEO of the Polymarket platform once said, "This is the most accurate thing humanity has ever had," praising prediction markets as vast databases powered by genuine social perspectives that distill into probabilities reflecting society’s shared views.
The growth of prediction markets is led by two main platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, which together reach a monthly trading volume of up to $24 billion USD. Each has its strengths: Polymarket excels as a crypto-native platform built on blockchain with diverse assets, while Kalshi leads in regulatory compliance under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
With the rapid rise of prediction markets, Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of Kalshi, became the youngest self-made female billionaire in 2025. Similarly, soaring popularity and massive capital inflows in October 2025 propelled Shayne Coplan to become the youngest self-made billionaire at just 27 years old, according to Forbes.
This article from Thairath Money in theHow to Make Moneycolumn introduces Shayne Coplan, tracing Polymarket’s origins from his vision and a single computer in his apartment through national-level conflicts, explaining why he chose to bet on this market and how it became the world’s largest prediction market platform.
Shayne Coplan was born in 1998 and grew up in New York City. He quickly absorbed the digital world and, at just 16, began investing in cryptocurrency by purchasing Ethereum during its 2014 pre-sale, an early phase of the crypto movement.
At the same time, according toShayne Coplan’s LinkedInprofile, in 2015 he interned at Genius (formerly Rap Genius), a globally popular lyrics platform and the team behind Spotify's lyrics feature.
In 2016, he shifted focus to his passion for crypto, interning with Chronicled, a blockchain platform provider for the pharmaceutical and bioscience industries, where he contributed to decisions to work on Ethereum.
Shayne Coplan then enrolled in New York University to study computer science but soon dropped out to start his own business and pursue big dreams in the crypto world.
However, the early days were tough financially. After dropping out, he faced money troubles, going through his apartment belongings one by one to find items to sell to pay rent.
“That period coincided with the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. I had nothing to lose at age 21, with money running out two years after leaving university and no tangible achievements yet. But I knew we were entering an era where finding truth would be more important than ever.”
Shayne Coplan shared on social media that with his extensive blockchain experience, he crystallized the idea that information markets—where contract prices reflect real-time event probabilities from many perspectives—were underdeveloped and underappreciated. This realization sparked the creation of Polymarket.
Polymarket’s beginnings were truly a one-man show, all created through the mind, hands, and a single computer in the bathroom of Shayne Coplan’s apartment.
In 2020, at age 21, Shayne Coplan officially launched Polymarket at a perfectly timed moment. Although prediction markets were not new, he brought academic economist Robin Hanson’s concept to life by integrating it with blockchain technology.
He launched Polymarket on a low-cost, high-speed blockchain infrastructure just as crypto users were becoming familiar with topping up wallets using stablecoins. Crucially, he focused on building markets for questions people genuinely wanted to bet on.
For everyday users, the buying and selling experience feels like a typical app, but behind the scenes, transactions occur on the blockchain and are verifiable on-chain, meaning anyone can check contracts and payments.
Polymarket is built on the belief that markets can reveal the true facts by letting users bet on any upcoming events. Users buy and sell “shares” tied to specific questions or outcomes.
For example: Will this candidate win the election? Will Bitcoin close above a certain price on a given date? Which sports team will win the championship? Each share trades between $0 and $1.
The share price represents the event’s "probability." For instance, if a contract trades at 65 cents, the market collectively indicates about a 65% chance that the event will occur.
When the event concludes and results are announced, the winning contracts pay $1 per share, while losing contracts become worthless.
This mechanism is interesting because the price is the prediction. There are no analysts spinning stories or persuading opinions—real money from market participants signals their stance on the event, making opinions more disciplined than mere speculation.
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Rapid growth fueled by easy technology and human betting habits drew strong regulatory attention. In 2022, Polymarket faced a major setback, paying a $1.4 million USD fine to settle CFTC allegations of illegal trading.
Polymarket did not admit wrongdoing but agreed to block U.S. users from accessing the platform, effectively removing itself from one of the world’s largest markets for years. Shayne Coplan once said, "Leaving the U.S. market four years ago was a big loss, but we knew we were doing the right thing to make history."
However, U.S. authorities suspected Polymarket might still serve domestic users. Just one week after the November 2024 presidential election, FBI agents raided Shayne Coplan’s home and seized multiple electronic devices.
Despite these challenges, Polymarket maintained its user base and trading volume, especially during the latest presidential election when users wagered over $3.2 billion USD on election outcomes.
One big winner was a French trader who earned $85 million USD betting that Donald Trump would win the U.S. presidency.
In July 2025, U.S. authorities closed their investigation into Polymarket just before the company acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed trading and clearing market, for $112 million USD.
This acquisition allowed Polymarket to legally resume operations in the U.S., with final CFTC approval following shortly after Donald Trump Jr. invested in Polymarket and joined its advisory board. He is also a strategic adviser to Kalshi, Polymarket’s key competitor.
Polymarket continued fundraising, securing another $1 billion USD in September 2025, raising its valuation to $21 billion USD. The round was led by 1789 Capital, the fund of Trump’s son.
A previous major investment was a $2 billion USD funding round from Jeffrey Sprecher, CEO of Intercontinental Exchange (parent company of the NYSE), in October 2025. That round made Shayne Coplan a billionaire and the youngest self-made billionaire, surpassing Alexandr Wang.
Polymarket is also known as the largest prediction market by trading volume worldwide, offering high liquidity and global event coverage. In the future, it may launch its own token, which could increase liquidity and incentivize traders and market makers to participate more actively.
From a young man who dropped out of university, used his apartment bathroom as an office, and once rummaged through belongings to pay rent, Shayne Coplan now leads a multibillion-dollar business. Polymarket is becoming a major player shaping the global prediction market landscape.
Sources:Polymarket,Forbes,Yahoo! Finance,Fortune,CBS,Phemex,ObserverVNExpress [1][2]
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