In an era marked by global volatility and rapid technological advancements, Bitcoin's price reaching $100,000 may signal a historic transition. "Veteran whales" are beginning to sell, while "global financial institutions" are stepping in to take over.
Thairath Money delves into insights with Top-Jirayut Supsrisopa, founder and CEO of Bitkub Group, who shared his views on the digital asset landscape, the entry of financial institutions, and the essential elements of wealth building for the younger generation on the Thairath Money Night Stand program.
Top-Jirayut He began by outlining the global economic outlook, noting that earlier in the year, the World Economic Forum predicted growth at 3.3%, below the usual average of 3.8%.
However, six months later at the Summer Davos meeting, actual global growth was only 2.2%, significantly below expectations. The main causes were global conflicts and the first reduction in direct trade dependence between the U.S. and China, triggering a transition in supply chains.
Nonetheless, amid the challenging economy, cryptocurrency gained strong support after Donald Trump clearly declared his backing, with policies promoting America as a leader in AI and cryptocurrency.
A key confidence-building policy is the promotion of stablecoins as the payment system of the future, along with establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. The plan involves the U.S. purchasing 200,000 Bitcoins annually for five years to accumulate one million Bitcoins as a reserve asset.
With such endorsement from global powers, major funds like BlackRock, Fidelity, and companies like MicroStrategy, as well as countries such as the UAE, have started acquiring Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
Currently, the U.S. holds approximately 210,000 Bitcoins, and China has about 190,000, reflecting a global strategy of maintaining Bitcoin Strategic Reserves.
Top-Jirayut He illustrated that in the past 13 to 14 years, cryptocurrency growth was primarily driven by retail investors, but this cycle is propelled by institutional capital focused mainly on Bitcoin alone.
He termed this phenomenon as the transition from "OG Whales"—long-term large holders of Bitcoin for over 10 years at low prices—who begin to sell once Bitcoin hits $100,000, activating previously dormant wallets.
Consequently, institutions become the exit liquidity or buying force for these original holders. This marks a crucial transition where Bitcoin changes hands from retail investors to institutions, funds, and governments.
Typically, Bitcoin exhibits a 4-year cycle with one "golden year" (Summer) and three downturn years (Winter). Statistically, this Summer cycle should end by October 2025, with prices peaking at $124,000 before declining.
However, this cycle is unusual because the usual 70-80% price drop during transitions has been minimal. This is mainly due to long-term holding by institutional investors entering the market.
This suggests the traditional cycle might evolve into a Super Cycle, where the Winter downturn is less severe. Coupled with inflation and U.S. money printing causing annual currency depreciation of about 10%, companies are shifting balance sheets into hard assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has now become an "Asset of Fear," similar to gold. The more global instability, U.S.-China conflict, or risk of a third world war increases, the more Bitcoin and gold prices are expected to rise.
Moreover, over the next five years, cryptocurrencies and gold are projected to offer the highest returns because global power tensions have yet to reach their lowest point, and the U.S. is likely to continue money printing, which supports these assets.
Top He concluded by stating that wealth creation for the new generation is not as easy as many think; if it were, everyone would be wealthy. The foremost requirement is "discipline," a common trait among all successful people—whether in spending, investing, health management, or seeking new opportunities.
He emphasized that one must first transform into a person "worthy of wealth," because if wealth is gained by chance without suitable qualities, it will not be sustained and one may fall back into poverty.
In addition to discipline, an essential trait is "persistence," a fundamental habit observed in all successful entrepreneurs. The key is not giving up despite obstacles, being willing to fall and rise repeatedly until success is achieved.
Therefore, future wealth is not merely about the desire to be rich but about determination and transforming one’s character and identity to be strong and suitable for the success that lies ahead.
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