Is the Restaurant Business Still Worth Investing In? Outlook for 2026 Amid Thai Consumers Budget Dining Trend and Small Businesses Losses

Opening a restaurant was once a cherished dream for many, but the overall restaurant business in 2025-2026 is signaling a major test of resilience. Economic data reflects the exhaustion of both operators and consumers, evoking empathy for both sides.

An oversaturated market of players, but consumers are "tightening their belts."

Research from LH Bank reveals that as of October 2025, there are 26,271 operating restaurants, a 10.0% increase. Yet, amid this fierce competition, Thai consumers’ purchasing power is clearly fragile.

Data from the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council shows that in Q3 2025, spending on restaurants and hotels grew by only 2.5%, a marked slowdown compared to the previous year's 21.8% surge.

The underlying reason is poignant and reflects a painful reality: Thai consumers are becoming more "frugal and price sensitive" due to accumulated household debt and a slowing economy, leading them to carefully calculate every meal.

Small operators lose money, big players dominate.

A closer look at the 2024 market structure reveals a clear disparity.

• Large operators: Only 68 in number, yet they hold nearly half the market share at 49.1% and enjoy a strong profit margin of 10.8%, benefiting from cost advantages.
• Micro operators: A large group of 12,449 businesses faces continuous average annual losses of 5.5%.

These figures show that passion alone is insufficient; small operators must battle volatile raw material costs due to weather, rising labor and transportation expenses. As a result, 575 businesses closed in the first 10 months of 2025, a 12.7% year-on-year increase.

2026: A transitional year requiring careful management of both morale and finances.

LH Bank's research forecasts the restaurant business outlook for the next year as "Neutral (+)," with growth slowing. This period coincides with political transition; the dissolution of parliament has temporarily halted economic stimulus measures like the "Khon La Khrueng Plus" phase 2.

Additionally, shifting consumer trends toward "health and sustainability"—such as plant-based foods and eco-friendly packaging—impose new costs that operators must bear to survive.

In summary, the restaurant business today is not just about secret recipes but about managing costs and "adapting" to consumers' lighter wallets. For diners, this means choosing the most cost-effective meals; for sellers, enduring this economic transition is the greatest challenge.

Source: Land and Houses Bank

Read personal finance and financial planning news with Thairath Money to help you "Achieve good finances and a good life."https://www.thairath.co.th/money/personal_finance

Follow the Facebook page: Thairath Money at this linkhttps://www.facebook.com/ThairathMoney