The 2026 IMF-World Bank Annual Meeting opened by highlighting AI as a deeply rooted issue demanding attention from both government and private sectors, featuring a global-level panel discussion. "Small AI: More and Better Jobs" When AI affects jobs, it means AI is impacting people and the national economy.
In developing countries like Thailand, where SMEs are vital to the economy, how can AI maximize productivity? This summary is drawn from the initial discussion between
addressing the question, "How can we harness AI to create jobs and drive economic growth?"
Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group, clearly stated that the Bank’s mission now focuses on job creation because, in 15 years, 1.2 billion young people worldwide will reach adulthood, representing a massive youth population to drive the global economy.
Beyond basic needs, another essential factor is "opportunities for work and being part of a society that creates value."
Here, “work” means not just employment with large or small companies or entrepreneurship but working productively and contributing to society, having hope for the future, and dignity from earning a living and being part of the economic and social system.
Now, AI’s arrival is inevitable, especially in emerging markets. Discussions do not focus on large language models but on applying AI in various sectors to boost productivity, such as education, healthcare, and agriculture.
“This is our priority: promoting Small AI to reach emerging markets as a productivity tool,” Ajay Banga said.
Tharman Shanmugaratnam, President of the Republic of Singapore, began by stating, “AI is still in its early stages. We are at the beginning of a transformation, not a sudden shock or a pandemic, but a complete entrance into a new era.”
However, looking at China, India, and developing countries in Southeast Asia, their economies are growing well, but job creation remains low. This means economic growth and job creation are beginning to diverge, and without urgent action, AI will widen this gap.
Another key concern is the emergence of a K-shaped economy and workforce. The first automation wave impacted lower-skilled manufacturing workers, some moving to service jobs, platform work, or the gig economy.
Currently, the worry is about the large middle segment of the labor market. We cannot allow the workforce to split into two distinct groups where some thrive while the sizable middle skilled group is left behind.
Still, Tharman remains optimistic that several sectors in the global economy have great potential to create significant opportunities for developing countries.
“AI will blur the line between employees and entrepreneurs,” Tharman said, noting the rise of “one-person companies” starting solo before gradually expanding, a phenomenon occurring in both developing and developed countries.
Governments and private sectors must support this business model’s growth as it represents new employment forms where entrepreneurs have more control and small businesses can access markets and technology more easily and affordably with AI.
“Whether we love, hate, or fear AI, one undeniable fact is that AI has entered our world, and we are already experiencing the first wave of its impact,” Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF, said in her opening remarks.
This impact comes through demand shocks and investment shocks that have driven economic growth in some countries, notably through building data centers and investing in AI model development, which power this technology.
Looking at the AI supply chain overall, three countries— the USA, China, and India—are the main AI producers. Still, many Asian countries, including Thailand, play key roles in building AI-supporting infrastructure.
Accelerated investments in these supply chains help sustain about 3% global economic growth, despite energy supply crises.
However, this is only the beginning and not the most exciting phase; the next wave will be broad AI adoption where everyone can participate.
Yet, developing countries must meet basic conditions before fully utilizing AI’s potential, as the World Bank report clearly states, including:
Nonetheless, the future remains uncertain. The IMF estimates developed Asian economies could see growth increases of 0.5–1 percentage points, while emerging Asian economies might grow by 0.2–0.8 points.
People often ask, “So what? Why does a 1% growth increase matter?” She explained that for rapidly aging developed Asian countries, a 1% economic growth boost from AI can offset aging population impacts more than any other factor.
In other words, AI may compensate for economic effects of an aging population and possibly do even more, as it is a transformative technology fundamentally changing how we work and live.
Kristalina Georgieva described AI as a slowly advancing tsunami wave, estimating that in the long term, about 40% of jobs globally will be affected by AI—whether through increased efficiency, diminished roles, or job displacement.
In developed countries, about 60% of jobs are impacted, while in low-income countries, the figure is 23%. This lower figure reflects limited AI penetration, not lesser impact.
An IMF study of the U.S. labor market shows about 10% of jobs currently require AI skills—higher-level skills that offer better pay—while routine, repetitive jobs are declining.
Interestingly, low-paying jobs are increasing, mainly in data center construction and service sectors. Although job growth exceeds job losses, this is not a reason to celebrate because most new jobs pay less.
Considering this, the group most needing attention is young people entering the labor market, who typically start with routine jobs and gain experience to advance. Losing those entry-level jobs risks losing their career development opportunities.
Therefore, the key takeaway is to study and understand these changes clearly and dispel the myth that AI reduces labor demand. Instead, AI is reshaping the nature and direction of labor demand, not eliminating it.
Turning to Thailand, Dr. Akniti Nitithanprapas, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, spoke at the same forum, stating, “Thailand focuses on three key goals.”
He defined this approach as “AI in All, All in AI, and AI for All,” detailed as follows:
Thailand must increase productivity in existing jobs and businesses. The government launched financial support programs to help small merchants cope with the energy crisis's impact.
This led to “Whisper Bird,” an AI assistant acting like a business advisor to help everyday small merchants. Nearly one million small merchants now use Whisper Bird to manage inventory and calculate profits.
In the future, with user consent, this data may help banks better understand business operations, crucial for merchants lacking formal credit history or collateral.
Thailand needs to develop skills for new job types. Currently, the country attracts major investments in data centers, semiconductors, cloud services, and advanced electronics.
However, Thailand cannot focus solely on infrastructure investment; it must ensure these investments create jobs for Thais. This led to the SkillBridge project, collaborating with educational institutions to train appropriate skills and link investors with qualified workers.
Additionally, investments are increasing in processing and cloud infrastructure to reduce AI usage costs, including token processing costs.
This approach helps startups, SMEs, and universities develop and use AI tools, rather than leaving opportunities solely to large corporations.
“We must ensure no one is left behind,” Dr. Akniti said, acknowledging that not everyone adapts to AI equally fast. Some workers need new skills, some businesses need time and support, and some jobs must evolve.
Therefore, the government’s role is to ease people's transition to new work forms. Thailand is currently linking data through Digital Public Infrastructure alongside projects to help the government better understand each group’s specific needs.
Ultimately, Thailand alone cannot achieve these goals without frameworks and cooperation from international organizations to ensure Thai people truly benefit from AI.
Simultaneously, citizens must be protected from new risks like online scams and deepfake media, requiring international collaboration to ensure responsible AI regulation and use.
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