They Give, But We Pay: How the 2026 Election Populist Policies May Bind the Middle Class to Bear the Tax Burden Instead of Populism

Only one month remains before the important 8 February 2026 election, amid a political battlefield where parties continue to serve "populist menus" to win over new Thai voters, including debt forgiveness for retirees, farmer debt holidays, and even abolishing credit bureaus.

While political parties compete to "give," the question workers and the middle class must ask together is "Where will the money come from?" and "Who will pay this bill?" Data from the discussion forum “They Give, But We Pay... Time for People to (Stop) Populism” by TDRI (Thailand Development Research Institute) reflects that Thailand’s fiscal status is heading toward a crisis.

Tracing the cost of dreams: Lessons from 2023 to 2026.

Looking back at data analyzed by TDRI on the policy costs of three major parties in the 2023 election reveals alarming figures.

• Bhumjaithai Party: Total budget of 1.86 trillion baht (focused on Landbridge and welfare).
• Pheu Thai Party: Total budget of 1.77 trillion baht (focused on Digital Wallet and water management).
• Move Forward Party: Total budget of 1.28 trillion baht (focused on universal welfare).

These figures are sky-high, and in 2026, TDRI is awaiting new data each party must submit to the Election Commission, which is expected to "outbid" previous promises amid public debt hitting 65% and household debt reaching 90% of GDP — levels that global credit rating agencies are starting to watch Thailand with distrust.

Warnings from "insiders" in the economic sector as populism becomes an addiction.

Perspectives from the three main pillars of the private sector (Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking) clearly reflect that the "giveaway" policies, which sound appealing, have become "time bombs" that businesses and workers must immediately pay for.

Dr. Phot Aramwattanon, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, emphasized that the business sector does not oppose money injections but worries that the funds will "disappear" without creating economic cycles.

“We want populism that creates jobs and income, not just spending that ends there. Right now, we only think about spending money but not about how to earn it.”

Meanwhile, Kriangkrai Thianukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, warned about campaign promises made "just for fun," such as sudden minimum wage hikes, where the real payer is the business sector.

“Distributing money requires skill. Long-term harmful giveaways must not happen. Funds should be used to restructure the economy and increase innovation, not just populist lures that damage competitiveness.”

Piyawong Sriwanich, chairman of the Thai Bankers’ Association, offered a sharp view that cash handouts may act like "addictive substances or steroids" harmful to vulnerable groups.

“They don’t help people truly escape financial black holes unless they lead to changed financial behavior. Ultimately, these debts will come back to destroy the banking system and the country’s credit.”

The painful truth: Rising kickbacks, declining skills, and burdens falling on the middle class.

The most worrying data from TDRI concerns corruption: every government investment project typically has 20-30% kickbacks, alongside more than 320,000 scammer cases causing huge damages worth tens of billions of baht, yet only 1% has been recovered.

At the same time, Thailand is losing opportunities in the global market because Thai labor skills have declined, making it unattractive to investors (the Thai education curriculum hasn’t been updated for 18 years, since the first iPhone was launched).

Meanwhile, the middle class in the tax system faces the highest risk of having to "bear increased taxes" in the future (such as VAT hikes) to offset government spending on giveaways that do not generate revenue.

Professor Dr. Athiphat Muthitajaroen from Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Economics points out that ultimately the middle class may become the unavoidable bearer of burdens when the government runs continuous deficits of 4-5% and tax revenues begin to shrink.

• Interest on public debt: currently, the government must allocate 11% of its tax revenue just to pay "interest," which negatively affects the country’s credit rating.
• Future expenses: as treasury funds dwindle but payments for increasing elderly welfare and unproductive populist policies rise, the government may eventually have to raise taxes.
• Social Security Fund: forecasts warn that without urgent reform, the old-age pension fund may "collapse" within 20 years, directly impacting today’s working population.

Six urgent agendas the new government "must do," not just "wants to do."

Dr. Somkiat Tangkitvanich, chairman of TDRI, proposes that to restore Thailand’s appeal, the 2026 government must act within one year as follows:

1. Seriously combat corruption: use a “morality pact” in government projects to reduce 20-30% kickbacks and strictly regulate crypto/digital platforms that allow scammers to spread.
2. Address livelihood issues at the root: reform competency-based education curricula (end 18 years without change) and reduce unnecessary business licenses by 70%.
3. Adapt to global turmoil: expedite clean air laws and a new Power Development Plan to attract investors seeking 100% clean energy.
4. Fight global trade battles: finalize free trade agreements with Europe and apply high product standards to block low-quality Chinese goods.
5. Restructure elderly welfare: raise pension age to 60 and improve the social security system before its collapse in 20 years.
6. Maintain fiscal discipline: stop using "pipe-cleaning" budgets and strictly adhere to fiscal frameworks to avoid credit rating downgrades, which would increase borrowing costs for everyone.

In summary, today’s giveaways become tomorrow’s burdens. Policies like "debt forgiveness" or "abolishing credit bureaus" may sound good, but if they lead to fiscal collapse, the last to pay the bill will be the "middle class" who cannot avoid the tax system. Will we still choose to stay?

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