Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group (KKP) hosted the “KKP Year Ahead 2026” seminar, gathering thought leaders and national policymakers to decode the challenges confronting Thailand's economy amid the election wave that brings hope to the people.
Dr. Phipat Luangnaruemitchai, Chief Economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group (KKP), and Andrew Tilton, Chief Asia Economist at Goldman Sachs, jointly presented under the theme “2026 Global and Thai Macro Divergence: Opportunity and Uncertainty,” reflecting on the economic outlook for Thailand and the global economy.
Dr. Phipat revealed that part of Thailand's economic crisis stems from the country’s three main industries—automotive, petrochemical, and electronics—losing competitiveness. The main cause is accelerated production and export capacity expansion by Chinese goods into Thailand and ASEAN, leading to a continuous slowdown in Thailand’s Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) despite seemingly expanding exports.
Coupled with financial deleveraging, where banks cautiously restrict lending due to concerns over asset quality, this has slowed the flow of funds into the economy.
Dr. Supawut Saicheua, Chair of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) and advisor to Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group, described the election as a pivotal turning point for Thailand’s direction. He commented that if the government remains focused on short-term "populist" policies rather than addressing structural problems, Thailand will remain trapped in a 1-2% GDP growth cycle.
He highlighted six key issues for restructuring Thailand’s economic framework.
Agricultural reform should shift production strategy from carbohydrate-focused crops like rice to protein production, responding to a global aging population that requires reduced starch and increased protein intake. Additionally, liberalizing imports of agricultural raw materials, such as soybeans and corn, is proposed to reduce high production costs for export-oriented livestock, where Thailand currently faces higher costs than competitors.
Transitioning to free clean energy markets, he recommended broad liberalization of direct electricity purchase agreements (Direct PPA) to enable all industrial sectors to access clean energy, aiming for the Net Zero target by 2050.
Upgrading logistics and tourism: He suggested opening concessions for private sector management and operation of state-invested railway lines, since the State Railway currently lacks budgets and locomotives. This liberalization could create new opportunities, such as developing train-based tourism similar to Japan.
Joining the OECD to raise national standards is a crucial mechanism compelling Thailand to improve regulations, transparency standards, and reduce corruption to meet international norms.
Restructuring foreign trade and geopolitics involves addressing the escalating issue of export circumvention to the U.S., reducing risks from excessive reliance on exports to the U.S. and imports from China, and seeking new markets and trade differentiation.
Monetary policy rebalancing: The strong baht acts as a drag on competitiveness, caused by overly tight monetary conditions that have kept inflation persistently below target.
The diverse expert perspectives gathered at KKP Year Ahead 2026 demonstrate the potential and confidence across sectors aiming to drive Thailand’s economy, emphasizing structural changes that can genuinely enhance the country’s capabilities.
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