Thailand faces problems both domestically and internationally, resulting in limited economic growth. Compared to neighboring countries, Thailand’s GDP growth has significantly slowed. To solve these issues, what areas must Thailand urgently address?
Dr. Amorntep Jawala, Assistant Managing Director and Head of Research at CIMB Thai Bank (CIMBT), said that neighboring countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Singapore have recently used economic stimulus measures by injecting funds into their systems. Many of these measures resemble those in Thailand, including populist policies, support for low-income groups, and assistance with living costs. These efforts have helped their GDPs continue to expand. Many of these countries do not face high household debt levels, so when they inject money, spending rises, creating a continuous multiplier effect. For example, Vietnam and Indonesia, with their large working-age populations, have seen increased spending.
Although Thailand has implemented similar economic stimulus measures, its GDP growth may not match that of other countries due to unique challenges such as an aging population, high household debt, and various structural problems. As a result, it will be difficult for Thailand’s GDP to reach 3% in the future without long-term solutions.
"Economists foresee that over the next 3 to 5 years, achieving over 2.5% GDP growth for Thailand would be considered good, while reaching 3% would be very difficult. If structural problems are not urgently addressed—such as spreading benefits to medium and small enterprises (SMEs), increasing skilled labor, boosting income growth especially in agriculture, and resolving the negative SME credit issues that have persisted for years—growth will remain limited."
Thailand’s current challenge requires a long-term perspective focused on two main issues: cyclical problems like dependence on imported oil, and structural problems such as an aging society, labor shortages, skill deficits, and high household debt. Even lowering policy interest rates may not effectively revive the economy. Therefore, beyond short-term fixes, these issues must be urgently tackled. The government should work to build confidence, increase revenue, reduce budget deficits, and support private sector investment to reach SMEs through various long-term measures.
For the Thai economy in 2026, CIMBT expects GDP growth around 2%, mainly supported by private investment, which is projected to grow faster than GDP. However, key risks to watch in the second half of the year include uncertainties from energy conflicts and a new round of trade wars. Special attention is needed regarding the possible reapplication of the U.S. Section 301 measures, previously imposed on China, which could pressure trade partners and cause volatility in global trade, potentially impacting Thailand’s exports. The effects on Thailand will need close monitoring.
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