Amid economic challenges and fragile purchasing power, Thailand's real estate market is approaching a critical turning point, even though signs of stabilization have begun to appear.
However, the future direction remains full of questions requiring close attention, including buyer behavior, true purchasing power, and credit movements that may not fully reflect the market from a single perspective.
As relying on past data alone becomes insufficient, understanding trends and recognizing early signals become crucial to the industry. This is the moment when REIC is preparing a major upgrade—from a data collector to a market navigator—by developing a "Real Estate Index" to clarify future outlooks. The key question: where is the Thai market headed, and how much recovery can be expected in 2027?
Dr. Mana Nimitwanich, Director of the Real Estate Information Center (REIC), assesses that although Thailand faces multiple economic challenges, including geopolitical issues, war, and global trade uncertainties, Q3 2026 GDP figures are expected to outperform earlier forecasts.
Current economic drivers stem mainly from private sector investment expansion, especially in AI technology and semiconductor industries benefiting from BOI incentives, alongside continuous export growth and a stable low policy interest rate—all positive factors supporting the real estate sector.
Nevertheless, the recovery exhibits a K-shaped pattern, with domestic purchasing power pressured by high household debt levels. Financial institutions remain cautious, applying strict credit assessment criteria.
Regarding nationwide housing ownership transfers in Q3 2026, both unit numbers and values declined. Transfers totaled 75,860 units, down 10.1% year-on-year, valued at 204.372 billion baht, a 9.6% decrease.
The low-rise market shrank by 11.7% in units and 13.3% in value, while condominiums fell 6.8% in units but saw a slight 0.1% increase in value, supported by high-value units in tourist cities with strong foreign demand.
Dr. Mana explained that the Q3 slowdown in transfers resulted from consumers accelerating ownership transfers in Q2 before the expiration of previous fee reduction measures, effectively drawing demand forward and naturally causing a Q3 decline.
However, examining the first nine months of 2026 (Jan–Sep), nationwide ownership transfers remained robust, with 243,525 units transferred, a 7.3% increase, and a value of 634.212 billion baht, growing 2.7%.
The condominium market was a key driver (+12.6% in units and +12.3% in value), alongside the secondhand housing market, which accounted for 73% of low-rise transfers and 52% of condominium transfers.
Although REIC expects a slight slowdown in Q4 2026, the full-year nationwide transfers are projected to close positively at 324,800 units, up 2.7%, valued at 876.9 billion baht, up 1.4%.
REIC forecasts a slight market slowdown in 2027, with ownership transfers around 320,000 units, down 1.5%, and values near 871.2 billion baht, down 0.7% compared to 2026.
Dr. Mana explained that this cautious estimate assumes the government will not extend the transfer and mortgage fee reduction measures, which are set to expire mid-2027 (30 June 2027).
It also relies on the original GDP assumption of 1.8%. Therefore, if the government extends the fee reductions or if GDP figures improve, the 2027 real estate market could perform better than expected, potentially stabilizing or growing slightly.
He emphasized that 2027 may not be a year of spectacular growth but confirmed, "The market is not entering a crisis." Instead, it reflects that Thailand's real estate market has passed its trough and is entering a rebalancing phase to sustain growth.
Business opportunities remain from the 50-billion-baht "Second Home PLUS" housing loan project, which enhances loan access for properties priced up to 3 million baht, as well as demand in the secondhand market, senior housing projects, and energy-efficient homes.
Another notable point in Q3 2026 is that housing loan growth diverged from ownership transfer volumes. Despite purchasing power pressures, housing loan figures tell a different story.
In Q3 2026, new individual housing loans nationwide totaled 146.672 billion baht, up 2.4% year-on-year, while the first nine months reached 435.986 billion baht, an 8.7% increase over the same period last year.
However, loan growth does not necessarily indicate a strong housing market recovery since part of the loans are refinancing, which has increased its share.
REIC found refinancing now accounts for over 30% of new housing loans, up from about 18% four to five years ago. This reflects debt shifting between financial institutions rather than new transactions or direct economic stimulation.
For 2026, REIC expects new housing loans to total 564.6 billion baht, rising only 0.2%, then slightly declining to 564 billion baht in 2027, down 0.1%. This limited growth reflects constraints from high household debt, repayment capacity, and strict lending criteria.
Although the government has fee reduction measures, relaxed LTV rules, and the 50-billion-baht Second Home PLUS loan program to stimulate housing purchases, recovery depends mainly on purchasing power and loan accessibility.
Beyond market direction, REIC is entering a new phase after its board approved a strategic shift to elevate its role from merely "data collector" to a "real estate market navigator," reducing systemic risks and supporting government and private sector decisions through key strategies:
1. Research Enhancing in-depth research and increasing frequency to address hot industry issues.
2. Ecosystem Building data and academic partnerships, integrating databases with government agencies to deepen and diversify information.
3. Insight & Forward-looking Focusing on forward analysis, highlighted by the planned December 2026 launch of the "Overall Real Estate Market Index," a leading indicator that all sectors will monitor to forecast future trends.
4. Commercialize Developing efficient and equitable data access systems and offering new data services with real business utility, moving toward a new five-year strategic plan in 2027.
Dr. Mana said the real estate index will not be just ordinary statistics but positioned as a "market direction compass" forecasting six months ahead (Forward-looking Index), bringing significant benefits and changes to Thailand's macroeconomy and business sectors in many dimensions.
Previously, real estate monitoring relied on past data, causing government measures to lag actual conditions. Having a six-month lead indicator will allow regulators like the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Thailand to see early warning signs promptly, assess risks, and set targeted policies.
For businesses and the private sector, this index reduces market guesswork, serving as a key tool to time investment decisions, including project launches, managing completed housing stock, and aligning financial liquidity with purchasing trends for the next six months, preventing redundant investments or inventory buildup during slowdowns.
REIC, established by Cabinet resolution, holds no commercial stakes with any operator, ensuring the index's neutrality, transparency, and high credibility. The index aims to become a national benchmark closely followed by investors, financial institutions, and analysts.
This new role marks a crucial transition for REIC as the national real estate information agency, becoming a knowledge hub and market guide by analyzing data, forecasting, and issuing early risk warnings.
This not only helps the government formulate precise policies but also provides essential tools for operators, investors, and financial institutions to make more accurate business decisions amid Thailand's challenging real estate market and the era of competition driven by data.
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