Time to Build Inner Strength to Ride the Strong Winds into 2026

In the final stretch of 2025, several economic research institutes agreed that Thailand's economy in 2026 would slow down to less than 2%, a rare negative outlook for the new year.

SCB EIC views that "Thailand's economy in 2026 will grow only 1.5%, the lowest growth rate in 30 years (excluding crisis periods)." Multiple pressures come from external factors like intensified trade wars and foreign competition, and internal factors such as deep structural wounds in households and businesses, declining competitiveness in manufacturing, and fiscal space limitations. These pressures weaken the economy's main engine. Meanwhile, as the country enters a government transition period, political uncertainty returns as an economic pressure factor.

This new year may not be just about waiting for external pressures to improve but can be seen as an opportunity to transform challenges into inner strength, turning uncertainty into actionable plans within our control.

This article proposes an "Inside strategy"—"spend cautiously, embed value in work, and pursue new opportunities"—for workers and businesses to transform 2026 from a year of hopeful waiting into a year of creating opportunities and meaningful growth.

Inside strategy #1: Spend cautiously

The fact is that Thailand's household debt situation remains concerning, with household debt at 86.8% of GDP (Q2/2025). Household credit access has contracted since early 2025, alongside signs of labor market fragility such as the first decline in household income (-5% in H1/2025 compared to H1/2023), reduced employment, and upper-tier workers increasingly worried about debt burdens exceeding income. Similarly, SMEs have yet to recover revenue from the COVID crisis and face liquidity problems, with SME credit contracting for 13 consecutive quarters.

The first inner strength is built by thinking carefully before spending. This helps ease financial strain and strengthens financial resilience.

For workers,

1. Prioritize spending mindfully: keep track of income and expenses, limit unnecessary spending.
2. Reduce debt with a plan / build savings: review debt balances, plan timely repayments, aim to reduce debt, and save enough to cover 3-6 months of expenses.
3. Invest cautiously: diversify investments across asset types within acceptable risk levels to achieve returns better than long-term deposits.

For businesses,

1. Maintain cash flow: this is the lifeblood of any business.
2. Cut costs effectively: leverage technology and data to improve production efficiency.
3. Understand customers through data: adapt products and service strategies to meet customer needs.

Inside strategy #2: Embed value in work

In an increasingly competitive work environment, the labor market now offers not just human workers but AI as assistants or replacements for many job functions. A 2025 McKinsey survey found that about 88% of businesses globally use AI, up rapidly from 55% and 72% in 2023 and 2024 respectively. While 34% said they are still experimenting, over 60% have moved to pilot projects and scaling phases. It is likely that businesses will soon fully scale AI usage.

The second inner strength comes from creating value through work. This enhances capabilities and helps preserve jobs.

For workers,

1. Upskill / reskill: apply AI to multiply results and build uniquely human skills such as judgment, empathy, and storytelling.
2. Seek purpose in work for your team, organization, customers, and society by delivering outcomes that meet goals, not just completing tasks.

For businesses,

1. Enhance organizational competitiveness: raise standards toward sustainability and embrace digital transformation to boost brand credibility and reduce financing costs.
2. Invest in upskilling employees and technology.
3. Cultivate a results-oriented corporate culture: set KPIs linked to customer value and organizational productivity.

Inside strategy #3: Pursue new opportunities

According to OECD data, Thailand's labor productivity growth has dropped more than half, from 4.8% during 2010-2014 to 2.1% between 2016-2023, lagging behind some regional peers like Vietnam (5.1%) and Singapore (2.6%). Similarly, businesses may still lack development in competitiveness of products/services, market diversification, and adoption of new technologies.

The third inner strength is built by seeking new opportunities. Build upon existing assets, start small but consistently take real action.

For workers,

1. Leverage current skills and special interests, including digital skills that can create side jobs in the digital and creative economy, such as learning AI for free on online platforms.
2. Learn new technologies: AI and automation.

For businesses,

1. Explore new growing markets such as India and the Middle East.
2. Pursue business opportunities aligned with new trends, including the digital economy, circular economy, and green economy.

Turn 2026 into a year of hope and meaning.

The economic winds may remain strong in 2026, but we can sail through them with an inside strategy that builds inner strength.

“Life isn’t about waiting for the storm to pass. It’s about learning how to dance in the rain.” — Vivian Greene

May 2026 be a year in which you create value in every decision, turn ideas into reality, and grow from your inner strength.

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