In the past, marriage and having children were often seen as the natural life path for most people: finish school, work, marry, buy a home, have children, and build a family. This was a long-standing societal image of success. However, in today's world, that picture is rapidly changing. Many no longer view having children as a "duty" or "life goal" like previous generations. Instead, they see it as a major decision requiring more money, time, emotional energy, and life stability than ever before.
Thailand is facing a significant transformation. Data from the National Statistical Office and population sources show that the country’s total fertility rate has dropped to about 1.0, while the proportion of people aged 60 and over has risen above 20% of the total population. These figures are more than demographic data; they reflect a shift from a society once characterized by many children to one with a rapidly aging population and declining births. The key question is why younger generations hesitate more about having children and how this change will impact Thailand's economy in the long term.
The primary reason many modern families delay or avoid having children is the rising cost of living. Raising children today involves not only basic expenses like food, clothing, and schooling but also housing, healthcare, transportation, extracurricular classes, technology, and costs needed to help children compete in an increasingly difficult society. In the past, families could raise several children with limited resources because social structures and expectations were simpler. Today, many parents ask not just, "Can we afford to raise children?" but, "Can we provide a good enough life for our children?"
This is a crucial difference for the new generation. They do not reject having families because they undervalue children; rather, many recognize that having children today is a long-term responsibility requiring careful planning—from education and health to safety and their children’s future careers in a world that may be very different. With rising living costs, income growth lagging expectations, and decreasing job security, having children is increasingly seen as "the highest-cost investment" for a family—not merely a matter of love or emotional readiness.
Another very important factor is the uncertainty about the future. Today's working-age generation grew up in an unprecedentedly fast-changing world. AI technology is transforming work patterns, challenging many professions. Skills once highly valued may decline in importance, while new skills emerge so quickly that education systems and labor markets struggle to keep up. In the past, parents believed that if their children did well in school, earned a degree, and worked for a large company, their lives would be stable. In the AI era, that certainty no longer exists.
In a world where AI can write reports, analyze data, create images, code, and perform many tasks previously done by humans, young people question what kind of world their children will compete in and what it will cost to prepare them. The competition in education and careers grows more intense. Many parents feel that raising one child is not only about nurturing growth but also about investing so their child does not "lose" in an increasingly large, fast, and difficult competitive arena.
This explains why the decision to have children today is about more than just money; it involves confidence in the future. If young people see the future as uncertain, with unstable income, rapid job changes, expensive housing, costly education, and intense competition, then having few or no children becomes a more reasonable choice for many.
Many may see having children as a personal choice, but at the national level, fewer births create deep structural economic problems. When fewer children are born, schools have fewer students, universities receive fewer applicants, and the future labor market shrinks even as the elderly population continues to grow. This means future workers will bear heavier burdens—through taxes, welfare systems, healthcare costs, and elder care within families. An economy with fewer workers may struggle to grow unless productivity is boosted rapidly through technology, education, and innovation.
Here, AI and technology could play a crucial role. In countries with shrinking workforces, technology can increase productivity, enabling fewer people to generate greater economic value. But technology alone cannot solve the problem. If society cannot make young people feel that having a family is feasible and not an overwhelming burden, then addressing low birth rates requires more than short-term financial support. It involves restructuring life—covering living costs, housing, childcare systems, parental leave, flexible work, school quality, and confidence that children born today will have a good future.
Ultimately, having children should not be seen as a burden borne by families alone. A child is not just a member of one household but a future worker, taxpayer, innovator, and citizen of the country. If society wants young people to have more children, it must help make having children less risky for ordinary lives in a world where technology changes rapidly, AI transforms jobs, and competition shifts young people's mindsets. The low birth rate is therefore not just about smaller families but a major national question: what kind of society will we build that inspires young people to believe enough in the future to create the next generation?
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