The Thai-Cambodian border situation is beginning to show signs of easing after the defense ministries advanced peace talks, preparing to propose a ceasefire agreement for signing at the GBC meeting on 27 Dec 2025 GMT+7.
Analysts view this as a positive factor supporting the Thai stock market index at year-end, recommending speculation on stocks with business links to Cambodia and the psychologically recovering tourism sector.
Looking back to 24 Dec 2025 GMT+7, the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a clear stance on ceasefire conditions, stating that Cambodia must meet three conditions:
1. Announce a ceasefire first.
2. Cease continued use of force.
3. Cooperate concretely in clearing landmines.
This aligns with Cambodia’s Ministry of Defense sending a letter expressing intent to negotiate a ceasefire to the Thai side earlier (22 Dec 2025 GMT+7), marking a response within the framework set by Thailand.
On the capital market side, analysts from Dao Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited assessed that the border situation tends to ease following ceasefire talks on 24 Dec 2025 GMT+7. The Ministry of Defense indicated that if working-level discussions proceed smoothly, it will lead to the General Border Committee (GBC) meeting on 27 Dec 2025 GMT+7 to sign the agreement.
The Thai stock market is likely to respond positively to this peace signal, although trading volume may lighten somewhat due to many foreign financial markets closing for the Christmas holiday.
However, if the index can hold above 1,280 points, it would be a technical buy signal. The short-term strategy is to speculate and gradually accumulate fundamentally strong stocks whose prices have dropped significantly, awaiting dividend payouts, such as PTTEP, ADVANC, SAT, PTT, and KTB.
Meanwhile, analysis from Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited noted that the domestic investment atmosphere will support the Thai stock market, with the Thai-Cambodian conflict beginning to see negotiation paths toward resolution.
Additionally, domestic spending from late this year into early 2026 is expected to remain active, potentially reaching 0.8% of GDP from New Year festivities and pre-election campaign activities, alongside foreign fund inflows net buying Thai stocks on 11 of the past 16 days.
One prominent investment theme today is stocks benefiting from expectations of progress in Thai-Cambodian negotiations, including companies with Cambodian business links such as CBG, BDMS, OR, SAV, and tourism stocks gradually recovering from negative conflict sentiments like CENTEL and ERW.
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