The Thai stock market has set a record of three consecutive years of sharp declines (2023-2025), with the index dropping over 400 points amid questions of whether this is a "crisis" or an "opportunity." Recently, Asia Plus Securities reviewed past statistics and clearly indicated that "the deeper the pain, the more beautiful the finish," noting that patterns show when the Thai stock market falls heavily for consecutive years at this level, the next year often sees a strong rebound averaging up to 47%, offering investors a chance for significant profits.
The investment atmosphere in the Thai stock market over the past three years has likely been a "life story" for many investors, as the SET Index continuously declined, causing significant concern and eroding confidence.
Looking back at historical data on the performance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index reveals a clear pattern of consecutive three-year declines as follows.
Over the past three years, the Thai stock market has fallen from 1,667.44 points at the end of 2022 by more than 408.19 points or 24.48%.
However, on 29 December 2025, before the market closed for the New Year holiday, the Thai stock market remained open with the index continuing to decline. At 10:08 a.m., the index was at 1,256.56, down 2.69 points or -0.21%.
The research department of Asia Plus Securities Company Limited released interesting statistical data in the Market Insight analysis dated 29 December 2025, stating that the three-year cumulative return of the SET Index (2023-2025) was a negative 24%, significantly below historical averages.
However, historical data indicates an important pattern: "When a three-year return is negative in the 20-30% range, it is usually followed by a significantly positive one-year return of about +47%."
This statistic leads analysts to view this as a period of reduced risk and higher expected returns, with valuations at historic lows.
Beyond the rebound statistics, the fundamental valuation of the Thai stock market in 2025 is considered "very cheap" compared to the past, with the average Price to Book Value (PBV) declining from 2.7 times in 2015 to only 1.1 times in 2025.
A deeper look reveals that 461 out of 703 listed companies have prices below their book value (PBV < 1), and 273 companies, or 39% of the market, offer dividend yields exceeding 5%.
Therefore, Asia Plus Securities recommends a strategy for the final stretch before the New Year and into next year to gradually accumulate fundamentally strong stocks with notable dividends in five main sectors: banking, retail, energy, telecommunications, and real estate, with attractive stock picks such as:
Additionally, there is a short-term positive factor from the "Thailand-Cambodia" agreement on a ceasefire along the border, which alleviates concerns and provides positive sentiment for stocks with revenue or business exposure in Cambodia, such as CBG, OR, MAJOR, and SCCC, making them attractive again.
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