Amid signs of global economic recovery in 2026, the investment outlook is becoming clearer, with capital flows seeking “markets that truly grow” amid falling interest rates and ongoing megatrends such as AI acceleration.
TISCO Bank assesses this as a crucial moment for proactive portfolio management, spotlighting three emerging stock markets: the U.S., India, and Vietnam, each with strong growth potential driven by robust domestic factors.
Meanwhile, the Thai stock market continues to face pressure from fragile recovery and structural issues, making investment prospects challenging. Investors are advised to focus on dividend stocks and seek growth opportunities in the thriving foreign markets.
Nattakrit Laotaveesap, Head of Wealth Advisory at TISCO Bank, revealed that 2026 is expected to be a year of positive economic signals globally, with Bloomberg Consensus forecasting growth close to 3%.
Among developed countries, the U.S. remains the key driver, with an expected economic growth of about 1.8%, while in Asia, India and Vietnam are the standout growth markets.
Beyond the boost from global economic growth, a key factor supporting investment this year is the direction of interest rates, which remain low and are expected to continue declining, especially in developed countries. The U.S. is anticipated to cut rates about twice more, from approximately 3.5% down to around 3.0-3.25%. Europe is likely to maintain rates after a reduction to near 2%.
Japan, however, is taking a different monetary policy path, with a possibility of one more rate hike this year to about 1%. Investors need to watch this closely as it could influence capital flows in global financial markets.
Meanwhile, inflation in developed countries has eased to the 2-3% range, enabling major central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, to continue cutting rates, fostering a favorable environment for new investment cycles amid megatrends like AI and aging populations.
Thailand still faces structural constraints, resulting in relatively low economic growth and a period described as “exhausted” compared to other regional countries.
While global listed companies have good profit growth potential, Thai firms are expected to lag, with profit growth forecast at only around 2%.
However, there is a chance that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will cut interest rates this year, possibly in the February meeting, with a potential additional cut if domestic economic uncertainty rises. The MPC could reduce rates by another 0.5%.
TISCO Wealth Advisory has outlined its 2026 investment strategy centered on three interconnected themes:
Theme 1: Countries growing through internal potential (Independence) - focuses on opportunities in countries with strong domestic consumption and investment, including
Theme 2: Investing along the AI wave (Intelligence) - focuses on industries benefiting from technology and demographic trends, such as
Theme 3: Portfolio protection (Instability Armor) - addresses risks from divergent monetary policies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties.
Regarding the investment outlook for Thailand, Nattakrit recommends reducing exposure to long-term Thai bonds because Thailand’s economy is still recovering fragilely and facing structural challenges.
This could increase credit risk. Currently, 10-year Thai bond yields at 1.6-1.7% are below the appropriate range of 2-2.5%, implying price downside risk. He suggests reallocating funds to U.S. bonds, which offer better return potential.
Moreover, the Thai stock market is expected to remain flat in 2026, with the index possibly peaking at 1,388 points at a P/E of 16 times and earnings per share around 82 baht.
Nattakrit Laotaveesap considers this year an opportune time to invest in equities, advising investors to diversify into foreign markets, especially in countries with strong fundamentals and future-oriented industries.
This aims to create opportunities for returns exceeding 10% through alternative assets that help protect against volatility, with recommendations as follows:
For those wanting to invest in Thai stocks, it is advised to limit exposure to 10-15%, focusing only on dividend stocks to receive stable cash flows around 4% annually.
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