Hospital group stocks faced heavy selling pressure today, causing prices to drop across the board. The main pressure stems from "rumors" circulating on social media and among life insurance agents.
These rumors concern changes in health insurance policy formats, shifting from an “all-inclusive” model to a “Co-payment” system, raising investor concerns about potential impacts on private hospitals’ main revenue sources, which rely heavily on insured patient bases.
This issue has immediately become a negative factor affecting investment sentiment, amid questions about how much the restructuring of health insurance will affect future profitability.
A recent survey of medical sector stock price movements on 12 Jan 2026 found widespread selling across the group, causing the sector index to fall sharply.
Also known as a “deep red” across the board, the main cause remains concerns over health insurance direction, compounded by specific factors in certain stocks, such as a large-volume trade (Big Lot) of BH shares at a price below the previous trading range.
The five hospital stocks with the largest declines as of 14:30 are as follows:
The source of the panic originated from social media rumors that a major insurer plans to "stop" selling all-inclusive health insurance to new customers, effective from 31 March 2026 onward.
The new policy format may shift to a Co-pay model, involving varying co-payment percentages depending on the premium.
Market concerns focus on "revenue from insured customers," a vital lifeline for private hospitals. If insurance shifts to Co-pay, patients’ decisions to seek treatment might falter or reduce usage frequency due to out-of-pocket payments.
Data from the first nine months of 2026 show many hospitals have a high proportion of revenue from insured patients, such as BDMS at 38%, THG at 32%, and BCH at 25%.
Therefore, any changes in insurance structure inevitably affect profit forecasts.
Analysts at Krungsri Securities publicly consulted major insurance agents (Krungthai-AXA, Allianz, Muang Thai Life) and found all-inclusive health insurance is still offered to new customers, with no clear termination schedule as rumored for some companies.
However, in the short term, these rumors may act as a "catalyst" prompting those considering insurance to buy all-inclusive policies sooner, ahead of any possible deadline.
Furthermore, analysts believe the medium- to long-term impact on hospital groups will be limited for three main reasons:
1. No retroactive effect on existing customers.
According to the New Health Standard, existing policyholders retain continuous coverage and can renew policies in all cases (except fraud or nondisclosure). Thus, the existing customer base with purchasing power remains unaffected by the change.
2. Opportunity to expand the new market.
Switching to a Co-pay model, while seemingly restrictive, lowers insurance premiums, potentially attracting new customers who previously could not afford all-inclusive insurance, thereby expanding the overall customer base.
3. Cooperation.
Large hospitals have strong alliances; for example, BDMS collaborates with insurers (such as Viriyah and Allianz) through exclusive insurance arrangements, guaranteeing a stable customer base for the hospital.
Nevertheless, a “hold” (Neutral) recommendation remains for the medical sector. Analysts expect the group’s Q4/2025 net profit to rebound from the previous year due to revenue recovery, and forecast 2026 group net profit growth of 6% from 2025, supported by an aging society and expanding insured customer groups increasing service demand.
Additionally, treatment intensity is likely to rise due to more complex illnesses among both Thai and foreign patients. If social security treatment fees increase, it will be an upside factor for group profits.
Top stock picks include BDMS with a target price of 29 baht and BCH with a target of 15.80 baht per share.
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