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Lessons from the TU-PF Case: The Social Security Trust Crisis When Unit Value Plummets—How Risky Is It for Insured Members?

Capital market23 Jan 2026 16:40 GMT+7

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Lessons from the TU-PF Case: The Social Security Trust Crisis When Unit Value Plummets—How Risky Is It for Insured Members?

Amid a volatile global economy and Thailand's transition into a full-fledged aging society, the Social Security Fund stands as a pillar of stability for more than 24 million Thai workers. With nearly 2.9 trillion baht in accumulated investments, it is expected to provide life security during sickness, unemployment, and retirement.

However, confidence in this large institution has been severely shaken recently due to concerns over transparency, value for money, and governance in managing its investment funds.

Looking back at the Social Security Fund’s investments in both public and private markets—whether in individual stocks, REITs, or major real estate projects—many cases have become lessons that provoke ongoing public skepticism.

Questions have arisen whether these are merely "long-term strategic investments" or if the capital markets are being used as tools to benefit certain business groups.


A crisis of trust over nearly 2.9 trillion baht in funds.

The "Social Security Fund" involves more than 24 million insured persons and has accumulated investment assets totaling 2.86 trillion baht. The public has consistently questioned how efficient and transparent the fund’s management is. For instance, in 2020, it was reported that the Social Security Fund was the largest shareholder in the SRIPANWA real estate leasehold fund, which was then underperforming.

In 2024, the Urbana (URBNPF) real estate leasehold fund faced net asset value risks dropping to zero; again, the Social Security Fund was the largest shareholder. Going back to 2025, there were concerns about off-market investments when the fund purchased the SKYY9 office building for nearly 7 billion baht, raising questions about whether the price was inflated and if it was supporting certain business interests.

Most recently in 2026, a new case arose involving investment in the TU Dome Residential Complex REIT (TU-PF), where the unit price fell from 10 baht to 0.9127 baht per unit (explained further in section 3).


Does the Social Security Fund structure need reform?

Although the Social Security Fund often clarifies that its investments are long-term to receive dividends, criticism about value persists, and doubts arise whether the current fund structure creates loopholes exploited for improper gains, using capital markets inappropriately. The nearly 2.9 trillion baht portfolio is overseen by the Social Security Committee, consisting of three groups: seven government representatives, seven employer representatives, and seven employee representatives.

This structure was designed to balance interests and negotiate basic rights. However, as the fund’s role expanded from "disbursing benefits" to "managing trillion-baht investments," this structure may now be a major obstacle. It raises questions about whether expert management is needed.


Lessons from TU-PF: Is insured members’ money really safe?

The latest case study is TU-PF, a REIT owning TU DOME dormitories. The Social Security Office holds 80 million shares, making it the largest shareholder with 76.75%. Yet, the unit value at the end of 2025 was only 1.14 baht (as of 15:30 on 23 Jan 2026), down from the 10 baht IPO price in 2006.

The Social Security Office explained that before investing, it followed its regulations. In 2006, it invested 800 million baht in TU-PF and has since recovered 159 million baht over 19 years. They acknowledged market value fluctuations and increased private competition. They have paid back 8 million baht so far and expect strategy adjustments to improve results in 2026.

Latest update. Nat Luangnarumitchai, Assistant Manager and Head of IT Business Systems Group at the Stock Exchange of Thailand, posted on his personal Facebook that the TU Dome case reflects structural problems more than technical errors. The Social Security Fund’s investment was based on overly optimistic assumptions, such as expecting nearly 100% occupancy and setting rental rates very high without accounting for competitive risks or tenants’ payment capacity.

He also pointed out frankly that the concern is not just continuous losses but the approval of massive advance payments even though the project was not legally ready to begin construction.

"The TU Dome case shows that Social Security Fund losses did not arise from typical 'business risks' but from lax due diligence—from project evaluation, abnormal advance payments, disadvantageous contracts, to systematic governance corruption by fund management."


Reviewing 2025 statistics, the fund recognized returns exceeding 80 billion baht.

So how well does the Social Security Fund invest? Data as of 30 Sep 2025 show a five-year average return of only 2.59%, which is relatively low for a long-term pension fund supporting an aging society.

Though this rate surpasses the benchmark savings deposit rate of 0.28% per year, it indicates that portfolio management has not fully realized its potential returns over the long term.

Meanwhile, Kanchana Pungkaew, Secretary-General of the Social Security Office, emphasized that the fund currently holds total accumulated investments of 2.86 trillion baht, derived from contributions by employers, employees, and government totaling 1.73 trillion baht since inception.

The fund has also generated 1.13 trillion baht in cumulative investment returns, with over 80 billion baht recognized in 2025 alone, equivalent to 6.1% of the investment portfolio.


"As of the end of 2025, reports confirm that the fund managed by the Social Security Office is highly stable, following all relevant procedures, regulations, and announcements strictly, complying with international standards and focusing on efficient management to generate sustainable returns that secure stable benefits for all insured persons," Kanchana Pungkaew concluded.

The current social debate highlights an important lesson: investing in risky assets, whether stocks, funds, or real estate, requires comprehensive data analysis.

Continuous monitoring of investment developments is necessary, beyond just considering the project name or parties involved. Ultimately, sustainable investments depend on more than short-term returns.


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