Following Thailand's general election on 8 Feb 2026, a surprise to the market emerged as the Bhumjaithai Party, led by Anutin Charnvirakul, won 194 seats in parliament—higher than many had expected. This includes 175 constituency MPs and 19 party-list MPs. The next largest parties were the People’s Party with 116 MPs (85 constituency, 31 party-list) and Pheu Thai with 76 MPs (60 constituency, 16 party-list).
When Bhumjaithai's seats are combined with those from the Kla Party and others, the new government expected to form in 2026 will hold over 280 parliamentary seats, becoming a stable administration likely to last the full four years. Consequently, projects like the 'Half-Half Plus' scheme, TISA, and other previously discussed initiatives may be easier to implement.
This morning, 9 Feb 2026, the Thai stock market responded positively. The SET Index opened up more than 36 points, a 2% increase, reaching 1,390.57 points, even briefly surpassing 1,400 points with gains around 45 points. In the short term, the news appears all positive, but looking ahead, what should we be aware of?
To answer this, we spoke directly with Therdsak Taweethiratham, Executive Director at Asia Plus Securities. He told Thairath Money that the 2026 target index remains at 1,440 points (estimated since 2025), expecting to meet this goal with chances of hitting 1,500 points at times, driven by two to three factors supporting an upward trend.
1. The government appears likely to be stable.
2. Economic growth (GDP Growth): Historical data shows that periods with a stable government tend to see GDP growth rebound.
3. Thai stock market valuations have risen somewhat but remain overall low. Foreign fund flows have increased, with net buying observed.
On 9 Feb 2026, the SET Index is expected to surpass 1,400 points. Short-term risk factors over the next three months still focus on economic issues. Although sentiment improves with the new government, the actual effectiveness of economic recovery efforts remains to be seen.
Trinity Securities Company Limited views the SET Index’s rise on 9 Feb 2026 as driven by the election results and a global asset rebound starting Friday night (6 Feb 2026). They expect continued foreign fund inflows, as foreign investors historically prioritize stability.
Therefore, foreign investors may continue net buying Thai stocks, having already purchased over 15 billion baht year-to-date, similar to the pattern after the 2011 election when Pheu Thai won a landslide majority.
Regarding government formation, two scenarios are considered.
1. A government led by Bhumjaithai in coalition with Kla Party (Democrat Party) and other small parties, giving around 280 seats in parliament. The allocation of ministerial positions is expected to proceed smoothly, representing an acceptable scenario.
2. A coalition led by Bhumjaithai including Pheu Thai, Kla Party, and some smaller parties, totaling between 300 and 330 government seats. Initially, there may be some negotiation difficulties over ministerial posts, but if resolved, this would result in a highly stable government over the next four years.
However, it is anticipated that certain stocks will benefit. For example, with the 'Half-Half Plus' scheme, stocks like CPAXT and BJC stand to gain; with welfare card programs and debt relief, companies such as SAWAD, MTC, TIDLOR, AEONTS, GLOBAL, and DOHOME could benefit; and alternative energy groups benefiting from solar rooftop policies include GULF, GUNKUL, and BCPG.
Regarding the speed of government formation, Therdsak explained it depends on the Election Commission’s process to certify election results within 60 days (with certification of at least 95% of MPs). Without this, parliament cannot open.
If conditions proceed as planned, government formation could take about two months, likely becoming clear before Songkran in April 2026. Subsequent steps include voting for the prime minister, appointing the cabinet, policy announcements, oath-taking, and finally starting work. It remains difficult to estimate how long this entire process will take.
The Thai stock market’s support level is forecasted at 1,350 points, with resistance at 1,440 points. Foreign investors are expected to continue net buying, typically adopting a buy-and-hold approach rather than selling quickly.
Finally, attention must be paid to which direction the Thai economy takes, what stimulus projects may be introduced both short and long term, and how the Thai stock market responds to these developments.
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