Amid widespread volatility, understanding the "investment game" requires grasping the broader economic structure and developing strategies aligned with increasingly complex risks.
Thailand stands at a crucial turning point as political turmoil begins to subside, foreign capital flows back in, and hopes rise for stability and policy continuity.
However, the Thai economy still faces structural challenges such as lower-than-ideal growth potential, tight fiscal discipline, and competition for investment in a world where supply chains are being reorganized.
Looking internationally, the investment world is entering a new era where geopolitics, trade, gold, and AI have become key factors shaping market directions, making reliance on any single asset or country untenable.
/ Able Lim, Head of Deposit and Wealth Management at UOB Thailand, has revealed the 2026 strategy, emphasizing that investors must focus on both "quality" and "diversification" to achieve returns while surviving in this uncertain world.
Able Lim, Head of Deposit and Wealth Management at UOB Thailand, explained that the significant return of foreign fund flows into the Thai stock market after the election reflects investor confidence in the new government's stability and policy continuity.
However, it is still too early to conclude whether investment inflows will continue at this pace. Key factors to monitor include clarity and implementation of monetary and fiscal policies, which will be crucial to driving the Thai stock market forward.
Economically, GDP growth for Thailand this year is expected to reach 1.8%, led mainly by tourism and services. A major challenge is spreading tourism revenue beyond Bangkok to secondary cities.
There are significant fiscal discipline challenges, especially with public debt nearing the 70% ceiling. Balancing stimulus spending with maintaining fiscal discipline to protect the country's credit rating remains a difficult and critical task.
A key focus is Thailand's competitiveness potential, highlighting structural issues: growth potential should be around 2.7%, but currently stands at only 1.8%.
While Thailand benefits from China's economy and attracts investment in EV and green energy sectors, in areas like data centers and AI, Malaysia has been more successful in drawing investment.
Additionally, the new government is urged to accelerate budget disbursement and structural reforms to attract foreign direct investment, especially in future industries, to elevate Thailand within global technology supply chains. Domestic consumption stimulus measures are also important for long-term economic recovery.
Able Lim noted that after 2025, the global market saw three major structural changes: Donald Trump's Liberation Day announcement, China achieving record trade surpluses, and gold hitting new highs 50 times within a single year.
These factors indicate the global economy is in a "transition" phase rather than a typical cyclical recovery, requiring investments to balance return opportunities with risk management.
In the US, the economy continues expanding but with a K-shaped recovery: technology, AI, and high-income consumers drive growth, while traditional industries and low-income groups face pressure. Though monetary policy may ease, trade and political volatility remain key risks.
China remains vital globally due to its manufacturing and export competitiveness. Its record trade surplus reflects supply chain strength, especially in EVs, advanced technology, and manufacturing. Despite domestic pressures, large Chinese firms' growing foreign revenue supports long-term resilience.
Globally, geopolitical and trade uncertainties have increased gold's role as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, rapid AI adoption in business is creating both opportunities and risks, making reliance on any single market or asset impractical.
In an uncertain investment world, the 2026 portfolio strategy must balance capturing returns when opportunities arise and managing upcoming volatility as follows.
Equities are still recommended to be "overweighted," supported by the US Federal Reserve's monetary easing cycle, especially in US and emerging Asian markets.
Risk should be diversified away from large tech stocks toward financials, industrials, and healthcare. Asian markets stand out, including Chinese tech and dividend stocks, plus Korean and Taiwanese equities.
For European and Japanese stocks, a "neutral" stance is advised, with careful stock selection. Europe should focus on infrastructure and banking stocks while avoiding economically sensitive sectors. Japan faces risks from the Bank of Japan's tightening policy; emphasis should be on financials and industrials.
In bonds, a "neutral" position is recommended, focusing on 5-7 year maturities. Investment-grade bonds in developed markets may benefit from interest rate cuts, along with emerging market bonds, especially quasi-government bonds in Asia.
However, "underweight" is advised for high-yield bonds in developed countries to avoid default risk amid economic slowdown.
For commodities, an "overweight" position in precious metals like gold is recommended, as it remains an effective safe-haven with ongoing demand from central banks worldwide.
In money markets, a "neutral" stance is advised, viewing them as liquid cash reserves to prepare for new investment opportunities during market corrections, ensuring cash flow management aligns with opportunity readiness.
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