“Enough already! I can't get any richer!” A phrase once dismissed as mere campaign rhetoric by Anutin Charnvirakul during the final stretch before the election has resurfaced among investors.
After the 2026 election results showed that the leading party, Bhumjaithai Party, secured victory and is likely to lead the government formation, investment sentiment has visibly heated up in the Thai capital market over recent days.
The Thai stock index rose rapidly, pushing the Market Capitalization of Thai stocks to 18.2 trillion baht, resulting in investors becoming wealthier by 1.2 trillion baht compared to the previous week.
This reflects renewed confidence from both domestic and foreign investors re-entering the market, driven by expectations that the new government's economic policies will be a key force in economic recovery ahead. Asia Plus Securities noted that if the leading party forms a strong government, avoiding crises during formation and external and domestic pressures, average returns from election day to government formation could reach 7.8%.
Research team at Asia Plus Securities Company Limited. Reported that the Thai stock market rose sharply just four trading days after the 2026 election, with the index increasing by 6.4% from the previous week. This raised the Market Cap from about 17.0 trillion baht to 18.2 trillion baht, representing an increase in investors' wealth of over 1.2 trillion baht.
Although external factors remain volatile, the structure of the Thai capital market is returning to a “normal” state, as evidenced by key signals including:
1. The stock market has grown larger than the bond market. - The Market Cap of the Thai stock market at 18.2 trillion baht has again surpassed the bond market value of 18.06 trillion baht, signaling restored confidence after in 2025 investors shifted funds into safer assets continuously, causing the stock market to be smaller than the bond market for the first time in several years.
2. Average daily trading value has risen to 78 billion baht. This is an increase of 45 billion baht or 73% compared to the same period last year, while the year-to-date average is 51.5 billion baht, up 28% from last year—levels sufficient to support the stock market currently.
It was also stated that if no political accidents occur, the timeline for forming the new government will begin with a “vacuum” period awaiting election certification from February to April 2026. The Election Commission has a 60-day timeframe to certify at least 95% of MPs before parliament convenes and votes on the prime minister between April and May, with the cabinet expected to be ready and deliver policy speeches by mid-June 2026.
Historically, over the past six elections, the Thai stock market has generally responded positively.
The most interesting phase is the transition period after election results but before government formation is complete, which is often prolonged and risky, causing returns during this time to depend on “stability” and “crisis.”
If the leading party forms a strong government and no crises or external and internal pressures arise during formation, the average return from election day to government formation is 7.8%, similar to the current situation where the leading party, Bhumjaithai, holds over 193 seats.
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