At a time when global stock markets are signaling a "pause," especially for large U.S. technology stocks facing selling pressure amid concerns over valuations being stretched beyond fundamentals.
The Thai stock market has continued to rise, gaining more than 200 points since the start of the year, becoming one of the top-performing markets in Asia during the same period.
The key driver behind the rapid index surge in less than two months has been fund flows continuously returning to emerging markets, with foreign investors net buying nearly 50 billion baht in the Thai stock market since the beginning of the year.
Amid analysts' views that some funds are shifting out of U.S. technology stocks to diversify risk, the target of the Thai stock index reaching 1,500 points within this year may no longer be out of reach.
From the start of the year through market close on 17 Feb 2026, the Thai stock index increased over 200 points or about 15.88%, reaching 1,459.68 points, up from around 1,259.67 points at the end of 2025.
This rise not only reflects a lively investment atmosphere but also represents increased "wealth" for shareholders, with market capitalization climbing to 18.46 trillion baht, up more than 2.53 trillion baht or nearly 16% in less than two months.
Looking at trading data by investor type, it is clear that the main driver this round is foreign investors, who have net bought over 49.88 billion baht since the start of the year, while proprietary trading accounts have net bought about 13.29 billion baht.
Conversely, domestic investors have net sold more than 30.08 billion baht, and institutional investors net sold over 33.08 billion baht, reflecting a significant "hand-off" of assets from domestic to foreign investors.
Analysts at Dao Securities (Thailand) see the index returning above 1,450 points mainly supported by strong foreign investment inflows and increasing domestic political stability.
However, the market remains volatile due to external factors including tensions in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, and movements in gold and commodity prices that may pressure certain stock sectors.
Research at Asia Plus Securities notes that since early February, significant fund migration has occurred from U.S. technology stocks amid investor concerns over the high capital requirements for AI investments.
This has led major indexes like the NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 to weaken, causing some investment funds to flow into markets seen as safe zones.
Among these are emerging market stock markets, especially Thailand, which has delivered over 10% returns since early February (month-to-date).
Asia Plus Securities has raised the 2026 SET Index target to 1,510 points from the previous 1,440 points, supported by four main factors:
1. Fund inflows driven by de-dollarization, causing the dollar to weaken and capital to flow from the U.S. into Asia.
2. Accommodative policy rates: Thailand's decision to keep the policy rate at 1.25% creates an environment favorable to stock market gains (historically, stable and low interest rates are positively received by markets).
3. Better-than-expected corporate earnings: Thai listed companies have outperformed forecasts by about 5%, adding roughly 1.25 baht per share in earnings per quarter.
4. Attractive valuation: Market Earning Yield Gap (MEYG) has narrowed to 4.7%, comparable to levels during heavy foreign net buying in 2016 and 2022, indicating further upside potential for the index.
Strategically, Dao Securities sees banking and real estate stocks as attractive due to their lagging price performance relative to the market and potential benefits from economic recovery and improved asset quality as reported by the Bank of Thailand.
Key recommended stocks include KTB, SCB, BBL, SPALI, AP, and SIRI.
Meanwhile, Asia Plus Securities advises investors to select stocks expected to see earnings growth in 2026 with dividend yields above 3% to balance return opportunities and long-term cash flows amid intermittent market volatility.
Notable stocks from various sectors include SC, AP, ITC, CBG, COM7, CPALL, BDMS, GUNKUL, BCPG, and OR.
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