Geopolitical tensions have once again rattled global financial markets following the outbreak of conflict between the United States-Israel and Iran late last week, swiftly pushing investment sentiment into a Risk-off mode.
This is reflected in strong safe-haven asset buying, with gold prices surging, while stock markets worldwide—from Asia to the U.S.—face simultaneous pressure, causing the Thai stock market to fall below the 1,500-point mark again today.
Amid increasing volatility, Thairath Money seeks to answer how investors can structure portfolios to survive in an era when war risks again influence market trends.
The conflict between the U.S.-Israel and Iran has intensified again after military retaliations late last week, pushing global gold prices sharply above $5,300 per ounce. This reflects safe-haven buying amid Risk-off sentiment, as investors seek to reduce exposure and guard against potential volatility from geopolitical issues.
In Asian stock markets, most major indices declined, led by the Hang Seng Index dropping over 2.5%, while VN 30, PSEi Composite, and Nikkei 225 each fell 1-2%, indicating sell-offs in emerging market stocks. U.S. markets also declined, with the Dow Jones down 1.05%, S&P 500 down 0.43%, and Nasdaq down 0.92%.
The Thai stock market today plunged again below 1,500 points, closing the morning session at 1,499.07, down 29.19 points or -1.91%.
Research team at Asia Plus Securities Company Limited stated that the tension between the U.S.-Israel and Iran remains a key variable that investors must monitor closely on a daily basis.
The real turning point for the global economy this time will be whether the conflict spreads to affect the world’s major oil shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Investors should therefore exercise caution and diversify risks appropriately amid such high market volatility.
Kornpat Vorachet, Assistant Managing Director and Head of Research at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited, told Thairath Money that currently, a defensive investment strategy is advisable because war-related risks typically weigh heaviest on stock markets when tensions peak, which was largely reflected last weekend.
From an investment psychology perspective, the violent events have already been priced into stocks to some extent. However, close monitoring is still needed to see if the conflict escalates further.
Normally, such uncertainty raises the oil price Risk Premium by about $5–7 per barrel. If the Strait of Hormuz is actually blocked, it would pose a systemic risk to the global economy, but currently, there is no sign of this.
Regarding the Thai stock market, the short-term movement is expected to find support around 1,480 points and resistance near 1,550 points. As long as the conflict does not disrupt key energy supply routes, the volatility is seen as short-term rather than a structural negative factor.
Another important point is that global capital is beginning to flow more into safe assets, including U.S. government bonds and gold, while the dollar has not strengthened significantly. This suggests some capital is gradually moving out of major markets and into emerging markets, with Thailand among the beneficiaries.
Asked whether to reduce risky assets, Kornpat views that emerging markets (EM), especially in Asia, remain investable given the ongoing positive momentum across several countries.
However, investors seeking further risk diversification might increase allocations to foreign bond funds or global fixed income to stabilize portfolios. Regarding gold, it is recommended to hold only 5–10% of the portfolio as a hedge rather than chasing sharp price rallies.
Kornpat added that the most clearly negatively impacted sector is tourism, especially businesses relying on revenues from Middle Eastern and European tourists, such as hotels and airlines. Conversely, energy and oil refinery stocks benefit from the higher oil prices and increased Risk Premium due to geopolitical tensions.
Stocks largely unaffected directly include domestic consumption plays, whose revenues depend mainly on local purchasing power rather than foreign factors.
Another interesting theme is infrastructure and technology investments, expected to benefit from medium to long-term foreign direct investment inflows. Power plants such as GULF and GPSC, industrial estates like AMATA, and ICT groups like ADVANC remain attractive themes, as overall investment trends have not shifted significantly.
However, if the situation pressures stock prices down by 7–8%, it could be considered a buying opportunity for investors who can tolerate volatility.
On the other hand, Liberator Securities Company Limited analysts noted that the oil price is expected to respond positively to supply concerns, benefiting upstream companies like PTTEP the most, with refineries and petrochemicals also gaining.
If the conflict prolongs, refineries may be hurt by increased crude oil import costs, as most import crude comes from the Middle East and shipping expenses are expected to rise. Current inventories are sufficient until the end of March. The transportation sector is also expected to benefit from higher shipping rates, positively impacting companies like RCL and PSL.
On the downside, exporters may suffer due to higher shipping costs linked to rising oil prices, despite their modest export proportions. Power plants, although 70% of fuel comes from local sources like the Gulf of Thailand, Myanmar, and Malaysia, will see increased costs from higher imported gas prices.
Meanwhile, Asia Plus Securities Company Limited research team recommended an investment strategy focusing on selecting beneficiaries and avoiding negatively impacted stocks, dividing stocks as follows:
1. Positively affected sentiment (beneficiaries): commodity and energy-related stocks such as PTT, PTTEP, TOP, SPRC, STA, and shipping or logistics companies benefiting from accelerated transport including RCL, PSL, TTA.
They also recommend investing in ETFs related to the U.S. oil business like XLE US (DR: SPENGY80) and ETFs focused on the arms trade like ITA US.
2. Short-term negatively affected sentiment (exercise caution): companies facing higher energy costs such as BGRIM, GPSC, GLOBAL, TASCO; air transport like AOT, THAI, AAV; tourism sensitive to inflation like CENTEL, MINT; and finance groups vulnerable to inflation and interest rate hikes such as MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR.
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