Over recent weeks, global investment markets have faced significant volatility due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Concerns that the conflict could disrupt key global oil transport routes have pushed energy prices sharply higher, dampening investment sentiment including in the Thai stock market.
However, the situation is beginning to ease as the U.S. accelerates military actions to reduce Iran's capabilities. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is preparing to release oil from strategic reserves to mitigate supply risks, causing crude oil prices to start declining.
Amid these signs, many analysts are growing more optimistic, assessing that the conflict may end soon and serve as a turning point that encourages capital to return to stock markets, reviving shares previously pressured by high energy costs.
The ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran is becoming clearer, with the U.S. recently intensifying severe attacks on Iranian military targets.
Although this appears to increase tensions, strategically it represents an effort to swiftly dismantle the opposing side's military strength, leading many to believe the war may conclude in the near future.
One of the most vulnerable points in this crisis is the "Strait of Hormuz," a crucial oil transit route accounting for about 20% of global oil transportation.
Recently, the U.S. detected increased mine placements in the area, prompting urgent deployment of forces to clear the zone and secure shipping lanes to prevent disruption of the global supply chain.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA), comprising 30 member countries along with the G7 group, is ready to deploy a key strategy: releasing oil from strategic petroleum reserves (SPR).
It is expected that 300-400 million barrels may be released to compensate for lost supply and reduce risks if the situation prolongs. This has caused global crude oil prices, which had surged above $115-120 per barrel, to rapidly decline. This easing of inflationary pressure positively impacts stock markets worldwide, including Thailand's.
Analysts at Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited believe that the U.S. clearing the Strait of Hormuz combined with the IEA's planned reserve release has driven crude oil prices down to around $85 per barrel and weakened the Dollar Index. These factors benefit emerging markets and Thailand's stock market, particularly shares pressured by high energy costs such as power plants, petrochemicals, and airlines.
They recommend three key investment themes:
Asia Plus Securities Research highlights a clear reduction in market panic, with the VIX Index dropping from 35 to 24, while Brent crude prices fell over 11% due to hopes for a ceasefire and SPR releases.
Historical data shows that after the VIX peaks, the Thai stock market often rebounds around 5% within a month, suggesting a chance to surpass 1,500 points. They recommend accumulating "Domestic & Growth" stocks for domestic investment strategies including:
. Dao Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited offers a more cautious view, noting that despite U.S. signals of a near war end, Iran shows no inclination to negotiate, and risks of energy transport disruptions could keep inflation elevated.
However, if the situation truly ends as the U.S. suggests, the index could rebound to close the gap at 1,466 points.
Therefore, the overall recommendation is to "delay investments" until clearer developments emerge. For speculators, short-term plays in stocks unaffected by the war or fundamentally strong stocks that have deeply corrected due to market conditions are suggested.
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