The Thai stock market is facing volatility due to the prolonged Middle East war, leading foreign investors to net sell more than 21,066.88 million baht over the past month, along with pressure from many stocks entering "XD" status, which usually causes share prices to decline.
Amid the capital outflow, foreign investors are quietly "accumulating" large-cap stocks, focusing on energy, retail, tourism sectors, and stocks that have already absorbed the war-related news.
Despite the overall picture since early 2026, the Thai stock index has risen by over 149.68 points or +11.88% year-on-year, supported by net foreign buying of 25,319.63 million baht, followed by domestic investors with net purchases of 16,590.45 million baht and securities companies’ accounts buying 658.49 million baht, while institutional investors net sold 42,568.57 million baht.
However, the Thai stock market currently faces external volatility, especially from the prolonged Middle East war entering its third week and approaching a crisis point.
This has caused continuous foreign capital outflows from the Thai stock market since the war began. Data from the Stock Exchange of Thailand over the past month shows foreign investors continue to hold net selling positions, with trading separated by investor groups as of 13 Mar 2026.
Nevertheless, amid the selling pressure, there is significant accumulated buying in large-cap stocks with positive individual factors. Research from Asia Plus Securities points out that foreign investors focus on accumulating large-cap stocks benefiting from global trends and specific positive factors.
The top 15 stocks most accumulated by foreign investors since early March can be categorized into the following groups.
1. Energy Sector (ENERGY)
Most prominent is PTTEP, which saw the highest capital inflow of over 4,611 million baht, aligning with a more than 40% surge in global crude oil prices this month. TOP and SPRC also recorded net buying.
2. Retail and Domestic Consumption Sector (COMMERCE)
Stocks reliant on domestic purchasing power remain safe havens, led by CPALL, CPN, and KAMART.
3. Tourism and Transportation Sector (TOURISM & TRANSPORT)
Stocks benefiting from the future tourism recovery include AOT, MINT, and CENTEL.
4. Stocks that have already absorbed some war-related pressure
Such as GULF, PTTGC, and IVL, as their businesses are directly linked to energy costs and global supply chains.
Today, the Thai stock index closed the morning session at 1,414.16 points, up 4.81 points or +0.34%, with a trading value of 26,961.10 million baht. Foreign investors still regard the Thai market valuation as attractive.
As of 13 Mar 2026, the P/E ratio stood at 16.11 times, the average dividend yield was as high as 4.53%, and earnings per share (EPS) was 87.48 baht, levels that remain appealing for long-term investment.
However, the short-term outlook is full of uncertainty. Dao Securities expects the Thai stock market to be highly volatile this week, with the SET Index moving between 1,370 and 1,450 points, reflecting ongoing opportunities for rebounds and selling pressure.
A key factor to watch is the tense situation in the Middle East, which remains highly uncertain, whether regarding prospects for peace talks to reduce conflict or risks of more severe military attacks. Such geopolitical factors often cause rapid global capital movements.
Meanwhile, the Thai stock market is entering the "XD" dividend season for many listed companies, with numerous stocks already marked as XD. This significantly reduces the incentive to buy stocks for dividend capture, and historically, stock prices tend to decline after the XD date to reflect dividend payouts.
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