Keep an eye on Thai energy and petrochemical stocks, which are becoming a "golden opportunity" amid severe Middle East tensions that have tightened supply and helped accelerate profits for exploration, production, refining, and petrochemical sectors through rising product price spreads and refining margins.
At 10:55 a.m. this morning, upstream energy and petrochemical stock prices clearly reflected global volatility. PTTEP rose to 162.50 baht (+0.93%), while IVL surged to 25.75 baht (+3.83%) on positive signals, contrasting with slight declines in PTT and TOP amid escalating war news.
Tensions in the Middle East have escalated to their highest level in a month after the US and Israel launched military operations on 28 February. On 31 March 2026, reports surfaced of an attack on a Kuwaiti crude oil tanker anchored at Dubai port.
At the same time, energy infrastructure and power plants in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates were targeted, with Iranian drones reportedly striking a telecommunications building in Sharjah.
Additionally, the US has intensified confrontations by deploying special operations forces, including Navy SEALs and Army Rangers, to the region along with the aircraft carrier USS Tripoli and over 50,000 personnel. A key focus is Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub.
Donald Trump issued an ultimatum that if a 15-point ceasefire agreement is not reached soon, the US is prepared to attack or seize the island to cut off Iran’s main revenue and force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
This conflict is causing severe tightness in global crude oil supply and driving sharp energy price volatility, as forecasted by many research groups.
Research by Asia Plus Securities Company Limited states that Dubai crude oil prices have risen to 131.81 US dollars per barrel, supported mainly by the US deploying thousands of troops to the Middle East and the potential control of Kharg Island, Iran’s strategic oil center.
Meanwhile, Russia faces risks of Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure that may force a force majeure declaration on oil exports. Although the US has postponed attacks on Iranian power plants, overall tensions remain high.
These factors have tightened and limited global oil supply, making upstream energy stocks attractive. Investment opportunities are divided into three main groups as follows:
1. Upstream petroleum group
Rising oil prices benefit upstream stocks like PTTEP and PTT, which directly gain from Dubai crude oil prices remaining high.
Assuming an average Dubai crude price of 70 US dollars per barrel in 2026, sensitivity analysis shows that if oil prices hold at 100 US dollars per barrel,
PTTEP’s fundamental value could soar to 233 baht, and PTT could reach 61.50 baht, compared with current buy recommendations with target prices of 150 baht and 42 baht respectively.
2. Refinery group
Refining margins averaged $17.69 per barrel between 23-26 March 2026, a strong reversal from the previous week’s negative $5.93 per barrel. TOP is a standout stock here with a target price of 55 baht, offering investors an opportunity to speculate on volatile refining margins.
3. Petrochemical group
Petrochemical products are expected to have passed their bottom last year and are benefiting from concerns over shortages caused by the war, especially IVL, which is further supported by entering the PET product season. IVL’s target price is 29 baht.
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