Amid escalating and prolonged geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, there has been a direct impact on the global energy price trajectory, causing volatility and continuous sharp increases.
Beyond pushing up pump prices, this situation has caused refining margins to soar dramatically, creating expectations of enormous profits and attracting investors who are flocking to speculate on refinery stocks, driving prices sharply upward across the board.
However, from another perspective, these rising refining margins have sparked heavy criticism and societal pressure, prompting the Ministry of Energy to urgently summon refinery operators for discussions aimed at alleviating the burden on the public—an important factor for investors to monitor, as it could abruptly reverse refinery stock price directions.
The ongoing and intensifying war and conflict in the Middle East have raised concerns over energy shortages, inevitably causing crude oil prices in the global market to fluctuate and rise.
Consequently, refinery stocks have regained investor and public attention after the "refining margin" (Gross Refining Margin - GRM) jumped sharply from an average of only 2.09 to 2.14 baht per liter earlier this year to 7.23 baht in March, raising investor expectations of massive profits for refinery companies, while simultaneously becoming the main target of scrutiny by government and society.
As the public faces rising living costs due to higher pump prices, society questions the appropriateness of the abnormally high refining margins, with calls from various sectors for government intervention.
Proposals include capping refining margins, removing the linkage to Singapore market prices, and introducing a "windfall tax" on excess profits to fund the currently heavily negative fuel oil fund, which is about 40 billion baht in deficit.
Most recently (7 Apr 2026 GMT+7), Energy Minister Ekanat Phonphan summoned representatives from the six refinery groups for talks, with the main goal of "requesting a 2 baht per liter price reduction at the refinery gate" to lessen the public burden without using the fuel fund for additional subsidies. If negotiations fail, authorities are prepared to enforce measures under the 1973 Emergency Decree on the Prevention and Resolution of Fuel Shortages.
Although refinery groups face heavy government scrutiny over rising refining margins, concerns about tight oil supply due to Middle East conflicts have driven speculative buying in the stock market, pushing refinery share prices broadly and strongly higher today.
As of 14:00 GMT+7, refinery stock price movements were as follows:
Looking back one month to the market close on 3 Apr 2026 GMT+7, refinery stock prices had shown continued gains:
Nevertheless, investors must continue to monitor the outcomes of government measures and negotiations between the Ministry of Energy and refinery operators. Should the government impose controls on refining margins, it would significantly impact profitability and could alter the future trajectory of these stocks.
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