As the Thai stock market enters the long Songkran holiday, external factors do not pause, particularly the ongoing tensions in the Middle East war, which remain a significant risk factor.
This situation could impact energy prices, inflation, and the direction of global financial markets at any time. Meanwhile, international markets continue normal operations, leaving Thai investors facing uncertainty during a period when they cannot respond immediately.
As the Thai stock market prepares for the long Songkran break while other international stock markets remain open, ongoing events continue to cause market fluctuations. Investors may worry whether external shocks during this period pose risks.
Dr. Soraphon Tulayasathien, Deputy Managing Director and Head of Corporate Strategy and Finance at the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). He stated that this is indeed a risk. However, based on past experiences, the Thai stock market has often navigated through crises safely.
When the Thai market is closed amid high volatility, the closure can be beneficial by giving investors time to reflect and preventing excessive panic reactions. Historical instances show this has happened multiple times before.
Dr. Soraphon also emphasized the importance of investors continuously following news updates but cautioned against overreacting.
He further advised investors to focus on long-term investment goals and to seek potential opportunities that may arise amid the crisis.
Dr. Soraphon noted that despite external challenges, the SET Index continues to demonstrate strength and high liquidity compared to regional markets. He encouraged investors to monitor global economic volatility and look for opportunities from business sector adjustments.
Overall, in March, the Thai stock market index declined about 5%, a smaller drop than other regional countries. Year-to-date returns as of the end of March 2026 remain positive at around 15%, ranking second highest in the region.
Additionally, market liquidity remains very good, with average daily trading value since the beginning of the year about 64 billion baht, sometimes surging above 70 billion baht per day.
Regarding foreign fund flows, although March saw net selling, year-to-date figures show foreigners still have net purchases totaling approximately 20 billion baht.
Dr. Soraphon assessed that key issues to watch closely include the war situation and ceasefire announcements. Recently, some positive news has improved market sentiment, leading to gains in the Thai stock index.
He also highlighted the need to watch oil prices, which could impact company costs and earnings. Clarity is expected around mid-year, with concerns about whether inflation will worsen.
Moreover, attention should be paid to U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policy. The market currently does not expect rate cuts but anticipates rates may hold steady or possibly rise if inflation surges. However, weak U.S. GDP figures keep policy direction uncertain.
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