There is constant uncertainty over the direction of the Middle East conflict, given its potential impact on oil prices and global capital markets. Despite this global instability, U.S. stock markets recently surged to record highs but quickly faced selling pressure that pushed them into negative territory. In such conditions, investors must decide whether to adopt a defensive stance or adjust their portfolios—and how.
Dr. Kongkiat Opaswongkarn, Chief Executive Officer of Asia Plus Group Holdings Public Company Limited, stated that amid risks and conflicts, including the war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran which may increase volatility in oil prices and the global economy, the year 2026 shows positive signs as fund flows tend to return to emerging markets, including Thailand. Therefore, investors need to closely follow the situation and adjust their portfolios to prepare for volatility.
This year emphasizes integrating investment perspectives to screen assets, diversify risks, and select products that offer worthwhile returns, protecting and growing clients' wealth in all market conditions.”
Therdsak Tawitherathum, Executive Director of Asia Plus Securities (ASP) said that regarding U.S. stocks, historical data over the past 60 years shows that in years when oil crises occurred, U.S. stock markets typically declined by an average of 18.3%. However, if the economy avoids stagflation, markets usually rebound strongly the following year.
Furthermore, reviewing past war crises, rising oil prices have consistently impacted stock markets. Initially, they tend to cause sharp market corrections, but as oil prices decline toward the end of the period, U.S. stocks typically recover progressively.
In the case of the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026, the impact might be more severe than the previous four oil wars because the attacks target energy production sites, potentially disrupting supply longer than usual. Consequently, the world, especially the U.S. and European Union, may face increased pressure from higher energy costs. Recently, the IMF lowered its global GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%.
Regarding U.S. stocks, recent short-term rallies pushed indexes to new highs, but the strength remains fragile. The main investment strategy anticipates that if a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is reached, reducing tensions, markets will shift to a short-term risk-on mode. This would benefit technology, artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, consumer, and tourism sectors. However, portfolio allocations should remain balanced to manage potential inflationary pressures due to the war.
As for the Thai stock market, the target index for 2026 remains 1,580 points, assuming a policy interest rate of 1.00%, with a lower boundary of 1,430 points. Downside risks are limited, though volatility is expected to continue. Market profit forecasts stand at 1.2 trillion baht with earnings per share (EPS) of 95 baht.
The SET Index continues to be supported by incoming fund flows and the profit structure of listed Thai companies, mostly in commodity sectors, which helps the market perform well even amid war. Should the conflict move toward negotiations, it would positively affect the Thai stock market going forward. High-dividend stocks remain attractive, with recommended names including KTB, BBL, KBank, GULF, BGRIM, and CPF.
Nonetheless, risks to the Thai stock market persist, especially economic concerns. Thailand's GDP growth for 2026 is projected at 1.5-1.6%, with high public debt levels posing challenges. There is a view that the debt ceiling should be raised above 70% to accommodate fiscal burdens.
Finally, Dr. Kongkiat described Asia Plus's strategic direction for 2026, focusing on wealth management to provide comprehensive advice to clients. Despite increased competition, the Wealth Management business will expand services to meet client needs, including estate planning and family portfolio management tailored to clients' goals.
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