Follow the investment atmosphere in the Thai stock market as domestic macroeconomic factors clearly weaken, particularly with the Ministry of Finance lowering its 2026 GDP forecast to only 1.6% from the previous 2.0%, reflecting a more pronounced economic slowdown than expected.
Meanwhile, inflationary pressures are accelerating due to rising energy costs amid the Middle East conflict. The market is watching today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting closely, with most expecting the policy rate to remain steady at 1.0%.
As for the Thai stock market index, or SET Index, on 29 Apr 2026, it opened in the morning at 11:43 a.m. at 1,484.13 points, up 3.93 points or +0.27% from the previous day.
Reviewing trading data from 30 Mar to 28 Apr 2026, the index rose about 2.29%, or over 33 points, reflecting a rebound driven mainly by domestic retail investors who remain the primary market supporters, with a net accumulated purchase of about 15.7 billion baht.
Meanwhile, foreign investors continued net selling of more than 4.7 billion baht, domestic institutional investors net sold over 9.3 billion baht, and brokerage accounts net sold 1.7 billion baht.
Research from Asia Plus Securities Company Limited. They assess that the Thai stock market is facing pressure from multiple fronts simultaneously, including geopolitical tensions, a still-tight global monetary policy, and high oil prices.
However, an interesting point is the "statistical behavior" historically, which shows that when interest rates are low and the MPC holds rates steady, the Thai stock market often has a chance for short-term recovery or a technical rebound.
This gives some hope for a psychological rebound, but strategically they still recommend increasing cash holdings to 30-40% of portfolios, reflecting a cautious stance and the view that the recovery is not yet strong enough to enter a true uptrend.
. Dao Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited. They adopt a cautious stance, expecting the SET Index to fluctuate within a narrow range and "likely decline" due to continued outflows of foreign capital.
Additionally, large-cap stocks like DELTA, as well as mid- and small-cap shares, are starting to be sold off for profit-taking, and the market is entering a long holiday period, which slows buying momentum.
Although they believe the Bank of Thailand still has room to cut interest rates by about 0.25%, it may not happen immediately, leaving the market without new catalysts.
At the same time, the GDP downgrade to 1.6% directly pressures valuations, so the main strategy remains focused on short-term speculation or waiting until after the long holiday. For investors seeking dividends, accumulating bank stocks is still recommended.
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