Although the Thai stock market has shown signs of recovery recently, behind the more lively investment atmosphere lies great uncertainty from global power struggles, especially caused by a man named Donald Trump, who has begun shaking all assets—from stocks and oil to gold and currencies.
Investors worldwide are facing an era where "political news" influences markets as much as economic data does. Conflicts between the US and China, the Middle East, and trade barriers have become new factors causing markets to swing sharply overnight.
At a time when many watch the direction of foreign capital and Thailand's economic stability, the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO) clearly reflects that "capital markets will never be the same again," warning investors to prepare for a new investment world full of storms and volatility.
Dr. Kobsak Pootrakul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO) shared his current investment outlook, saying the world has changed. The days of investing in markets with ease are over. The current investment world is like a "storm" where damage can always occur.
Sometimes, crises do not arise from economic fundamentals, capital inflows, or technical charts as previously analyzed, but can happen overnight.
This is the condition of today's capital markets full of turbulence. Investors must reassess their resilience—how well they can manage portfolios and absorb losses—because from now on, stocks, gold, and oil will face continuous volatility.
Dr. Kobsak estimates this severe volatility will continue for at least two and a half years, driven by US political factors and Donald Trump's presidency as accelerators, leading to intensified US-China great power conflicts and other geopolitical vulnerabilities such as Iran, Cuba, and Greenland.
Contemporary conflicts are multidimensional, overlapping and affecting many areas, comprising five main dimensions: trade wars, technology wars, financial wars, diplomatic wars and alignments, and military wars.
In April 2026, the overall investor confidence index stood at 114.16, classified as "stable (Neutral)," marking an improvement that restored confidence after a decline the previous month.
Market support comes from government economic stimulus measures, such as the "Half-Half" co-payment scheme, which investors find most attractive, along with investment promotion applications (BOI) surging to one trillion baht in one quarter, reflecting better conditions than the previous year.
Current market drags include international conflicts, the main factor pressuring confidence, as well as concerns over trade wars and fiscal discipline.
However, confidence has mostly risen among retail investors, brokerage portfolios, and especially foreign investors who have regained trust in the Thai market, except for institutional investors.
The sector most favored by investors is petrochemicals and chemicals (PETRO), benefiting from rising global energy prices. The least favored sector is fashion (FASHION), heavily impacted by an influx of products from China.
Dr. Kobsak noted that before US-Iran conflicts arose, the Thai stock market had risen strongly past 1,500 points, supported by stable domestic politics and funds relocating from Indonesia to ASEAN markets.
However, although large indices like SET50, SET100, and SETESG remain strong, the mai index has not improved, as Thai SMEs are directly affected by economic conditions and competition from Chinese goods.
For investment opportunities amid market volatility, attractive sectors include those benefiting short-term, such as petrochemicals, which gain from higher global oil prices improving profit margins.
Next are commercial banks with safe fundamentals suitable for gradual accumulation, followed by sectors growing with megatrends like AI and electronics, which have real investments, actual use, and rapid growth.
However, previous winners may no longer lead. The key strategy now is to invest only in companies with well-understood fundamentals, strong financial positions, and the ability to compete with new rivals. Diversifying risk by exploring growth opportunities in foreign stocks through Depositary Receipts (DRs) is also advisable.
Dr. Kobsak said that FETCO has brainstormed recently to prepare main proposals to present to the government in June, focusing on key measures to promote and elevate the Thai capital market, as follows.
1. Promoting TISA (Thai Individual Savings Account) to create accounts encouraging long-term saving and investing for individuals, serving as a tool to stimulate public investment in capital markets. This will not only increase market liquidity but also help secure financial stability for retirement among Thai people.
2. The BOI to IPO project encourages large companies or foreign firms with production bases in Thailand and BOI investment promotion to list and raise funds through IPOs on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, attracting investment capital and quality companies to the Thai stock market.
3. Building a digital business sector: Currently, the Thai stock market lacks large listed companies in technology and digital sectors, so the aim is to attract more of these companies to the market.
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