The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has announced. It announced yesterday the list of securities entering and exiting key indices, revealing that four major stocks removed from SET50 are BTS, CBG, CENTEL, and SAWAD, causing several stocks to drop in price at the market open on the morning of 18 June, reflecting selling pressure from investor portfolio adjustments.
However, securities analysts warned that stocks removed should be approached with caution regarding selling pressure over the next two weeks, but if prices correct deeply, fundamentally strong stocks with good growth stories may present a gradual accumulation opportunity after the effective date.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) announced the review results of securities listed in the SET50 and SET100 indices for the second half of 2026, effective from 1 July to 31 December 2026.
These changes are based on market capitalization and trading liquidity criteria.
This adjustment makes the removal of four major stocks—BTS, CBG, CENTEL, and SAWAD—a focus for investors, as removal from SET50 often triggers selling from index-linked funds.
Research from Asia Plus Securities estimates MRDIYT and THAI as standout stocks this round, entering both indices, making them key targets for Passive Funds adjusting portfolios.
For stocks removed, caution is advised regarding selling pressure in the next two weeks, but if prices decline significantly, fundamentally strong stocks with growth stories like BTS, CENTEL, and CBG remain attractive for phased accumulation after the effective date.
Price movements of stocks removed from the SET50 index faced heavy selling pressure during the market open at 10:21 a.m. today (18 June 2026).
Thairath Money has compiled perspectives and analyses from leading securities firms as additional information to assist investors amid pressure from index fund portfolio adjustments and opportunities in fundamentally strong stocks as follows.
BTS shares lack clear positive catalysts.
Bualuang Securities assesses that the likelihood of buying back the Pink and Yellow line concessions is decreasing, which may cause the company to continue recognizing losses from these routes, while the U-Tapao airport project will take several years before generating returns.
Additionally, although the fare policy of 17-45 baht may boost ridership, the positive impact on profit remains limited.
Due to these factors, Bualuang downgraded BTS to “sell” from “hold” and cut the target price to 1.80 baht from 2.40 baht, viewing the stock as warranting a valuation downgrade and recommending investors shift funds to transport stocks with better performance prospects such as BEM and AAV.
CBG begins to show positive factors next year.
Yuan Ta Securities (Thailand) expects second half of 2026 profits to grow compared to last year due to a low base, supported by the domestic energy drink business, expanded distribution channels, and revenue recognition from producing "Loveza" drinks for Love Potion, which has been well received.
Positive factors also include the “Thai Chua Thai Plus” project and the potential end of the Middle East conflict, which would provide upside to revenue and gross margin estimates.
For 2027, profit estimates were raised 5.4% to 3.085 billion baht, a 19.8% increase from the prior year, supported by business restructuring in the UK to focus on concentrate sales and royalty income, and production in Afghanistan reducing import taxes.
This raised the fair value to 50.50 baht and upgraded the recommendation to “buy,” as the stock has 20.2% upside and a share buyback program limits downside risk.
CENTEL stock price already reflects risks.
Asia Plus Securities notes that while unrest in the Middle East pressures tourism, CENTEL’s Q1/2026 earnings exceeded expectations, with normal profit of 1.1 billion baht, up 35% year-on-year, accounting for 48% of annual profit estimates.
This suggests limited risk to profit forecasts, supported by hotel recoveries in the Maldives and profit shares from the food business.
Profit estimates for 2026-2027 remain at 2.2 billion and 2.5 billion baht respectively, supported by new hotel openings in Japan and the Maldives and full reopening of renovated hotels.
The firm maintains a “buy” recommendation and a target price of 42 baht, seeing that the prior share price decline has already factored in negative factors.
SAWAD gains support from recovering NIM and new business.
Yuan Ta Securities (Thailand) indicates that SAWAD’s net interest margin (NIM) may gradually improve due to slower bad debt write-offs, higher-yield new loans, and lower financing costs from new bond issuance.
Losses from repossessed vehicle sales are likely to decline with stability in the used car market, while the company’s new locked phone loan business via SCAP is another growth driver.
Net profit for 2026 is forecast at 5.123 billion baht, up 2.4% year-on-year, despite potential higher provisions and losses from vehicle sales in Q2/2026 compared to the prior quarter.
However, increased interest and fee income from new loans will partially offset this. The target price remains at 28 baht with a “buy” recommendation, supported by 30.2% upside potential and an expected 3.6% dividend yield.
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