Following the dispute case where the Cabinet authorized the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society to undertake legal proceedings against Thai Satellite Public Company Limited (THCOM) . The Ministry also authorized proceedings against Gulf Development Public Company Limited (GULF) over alleged breaches of the domestic communications satellite concession contract, demanding fines and damages totaling about 1.25 billion baht.
This issue may exert short-term pressure on THCOM and GULF shares, but since the dispute is still at an early stage and may take years to resolve, investors should watch closely to see how much the case ultimately affects earnings and stock value.
As of the morning trading session today, THCOM shares closed down by 0.20 baht or -1.92% at 10.10 baht, while GULF shares rose 1.00 baht or +1.62% to 62.75 baht.
the origin lies in the domestic communications satellite concession contract, originally Shinawatra Computer and Communications Public Company Limited, now known as Intouch Holdings Public Company Limited (INTUCH) and Shinawatra Satellite Public Company Limited, now known as Thai Satellite Public Company Limited (THCOM) who jointly contracted with the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society.
Under this contract, THCOM operated and managed the satellite business until the concession ended after 30 years on 10 September 2021. THCOM affirms it delivered all assets back to the Ministry on 11 September 2021.
However, reports indicate the Ministry disagrees, claiming there are six key asset items related to satellites TC-4 and TC-6 that ThaiCom has not returned, and it has issued at least three warning letters to ThaiCom over several years.
Most recently, on 1 September 2026, the Cabinet resolved to authorize the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society to officially initiate legal proceedings against both ThaiCom and GULF, demanding fines and damages totaling about 1.25 billion baht.
The involvement of Gulf Development Public Company Limited (GULF) arises from a shareholder restructuring: on 1 April 2025, Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited completed a legal merger with Intouch Holdings Public Company Limited (INTUCH).
This created a new legal entity that assumed all assets, liabilities, rights, duties, and responsibilities of Intouch by law, causing GULF to automatically step into Intouch's contractual and legal positions in this dispute.
Both THCOM and GULF issued statements to the Stock Exchange on 7 September 2026 after news emerged about the Ministry's planned legal action, confirming that THCOM fully delivered the assets under the concession contract to the Ministry on 11 September 2021.
THCOM stated that the assets the Ministry claims are not within the contract's scope and that the company has continuously clarified this point with the Ministry, affirming full compliance with the contract and law.
If arbitration proceedings occur, the company is prepared to defend its rights legally. As of the statement date, there is no obligation to proceed with or pay the approximately 1.25 billion baht to the Ministry.
GULF echoed this position, explaining that its involvement stems from the merger between Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited and INTUCH, which formed the new legal entity GULF on 1 April 2025.
Thus, as the new legal entity, GULF acquired all assets, liabilities, rights, duties, and responsibilities of INTUCH, including stepping into its contractual and legal roles in the concession dispute.
GULF likewise confirms there is currently no obligation to pay the 1.25 billion baht, and it will defend its rights under the law if arbitration begins.
Krungsri Securities analysts stated in their report that the case will negatively affect investment sentiment only in the short term, without impacting fundamentals or causing long-term concerns.
The case will have to go through at least three judicial levels: arbitration (about 2-3 years), the Central Administrative Court (another 2-3 years), and the Supreme Administrative Court (another 2-3 years), totaling potentially 6-9 years until a final ruling.
They also spoke with ThaiCom's investor relations team during the recent holiday, who remain confident that the company fully complied with the concession contract. Financial statements show no reserves or disclosures relating to this case.
Therefore, ThaiCom is not expected to record any expense reserves for this matter over the next 4-5 years. Similar disputes between government agencies and private firms typically pressure share prices for only 1-2 months after news breaks, before prices return to fundamentals.
Going forward, ThaiCom's share price driver will be progress in bidding for the USO Phase 3 project, expected to revive earnings. The firm maintains a “buy” rating with a target price of 14.70 baht per share.
Meanwhile, Bualuang Securities offers a differing view, noting the dispute originates from differing interpretations of the term "assets to be returned to the state," with the government viewing six equipment items as essential, while ThaiCom insists it delivered the satellites and main control stations fully on 11 September 2021.
Because the definition is ambiguous, the dispute is expected to go through arbitration and courts, potentially taking 5-7 years to reach the Supreme Administrative Court. Thus, no reserves are expected until a verdict. If ultimately losing, the estimated impact could be about 1.15 baht per share.
The short-term fundamental impact is minimal but will pressure stock sentiment, as the market had previously seen declining government dispute risk. The re-emergence of litigation may increase regulatory risk perception again.
Coupled with a lack of new positive factors while awaiting clarity on the USO Phase 3 project from the NBTC, Bualuang Securities maintains a “sell” rating with a target price of 9.50 baht, stating no short-term impact on earnings or valuation due to no legal or financial obligations yet.
Regarding GULF shares, Asia Plus Securities' research contacted Gulf directly for details. Currently, GULF is reviewing the matter and may provide further information later, making it an issue to monitor closely.
Initially, this is seen as negative sentiment that may pressure the stock short term, since GULF is named as a party in the dispute, similar to past satellite disputes. Given GULF holds 41.5% of ThaiCom shares and consolidates ThaiCom's earnings, a worst-case scenario with ThaiCom incurring damages could affect GULF's profits through consolidation.
However, at this stage, the Cabinet has only authorized the Ministry to sue; there is no court ruling or decision confirming wrongdoing or damage payments by GULF or ThaiCom.
Therefore, a “buy” recommendation with a target price of 80 baht is maintained, viewing this as short-term sentiment pressure without fundamental impact on GULF’s core power and digital businesses.
If the share price corrects due to this issue, it is seen as an opportunity to accumulate long-term investments, benefiting from profit growth over 1-3 years and opportunities from new national infrastructure investment cycles under the PDP plan expected to become clearer soon.
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