On Sunday, 20 Sep 2026, a fire broke out on electrical wiring along the MRT Blue Line tracks near Tao Poon station on Pracharat Sai 2 Road, Bang Sue district, around 12:20 PM. The initial cause was an electrical short circuit on the track wiring, producing flames and smoke.
Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited (BEM), operator of the Blue Line, announced a temporary suspension of service at all stations before reducing to closures only between Bang O and Kamphaeng Phet stations at 1:13 PM. This caused delays of about 60 minutes at some stations, likely due to moisture accumulation from continuous rain.
This morning (21 Sep), BEM reported at 5:37 AM that the Blue and Purple lines had resumed normal service at all stations with no injuries reported. However, investors are closely watching how the market will assess BEM’s financial losses.
Despite the recent fire on the MRT Blue Line’s electrical wiring, this morning’s share price movement has not significantly reflected investor concerns.
BEM’s stock closed the morning session at 6.85 baht, up 0.05 baht or +0.74% from the previous close of 6.80 baht, with a high of 7.00 baht and a low of 6.75 baht.
Looking back, BEM shares mostly traded between low to mid-5 baht range over the past 12 months before gradually rising to a peak around 7.35 baht, then retreating to the current 6.80–6.90 baht range.
Year-to-date in 2026, BEM shares have gained about 28%, outperforming the SET index’s 23–24% gain and the transportation sector index’s roughly 10% increase.
More interesting than the share price movement is analysts’ consensus. Data from the Investment Analysts Association (IAA Consensus) shows 12 brokers covering BEM.
All 12 brokers recommend “buy” with no “hold” or “sell” ratings. The average 2026 target price is 8.65 baht, about 24% above the current price, with a high target of 10.50 baht and a low of 8.00 baht.
Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited stated in their analysis that the fire’s impact is minor, thus maintaining a “buy” rating with a target price of 8.80 baht, representing about 29% upside from the 6.80 baht close.
The impact on BEM is limited due to insurance coverage for rail and electrical system damage. Following brief talks with the company yesterday, BEM expects lost revenue during the service halt to be insignificant.
The incident occurred over the weekend when passenger numbers are lower, and the company aimed to resume normal operations this morning. Thus, the impact only affected Sunday afternoon service.
Considering the damage, it is highly likely that all four affected stations will reopen within a few days, not weeks, consistent with BEM’s announcement of full service restoration this morning.
Therefore, the net profit forecast for 2026 remains at 3.91 billion baht, a 3.4% increase from the previous year and a record high. The 2027 forecast stands at 3.97 billion baht. The “buy” recommendation is maintained under the value stock theme.
Although the share price has risen recently, the current price is still below pre-COVID levels, even though 2026 profits are significantly higher than in 2020–2022. BEM also has two additional assets compared to the past: the Blue Line extension and the Orange Line.
The current share price does not reflect the value of the Orange Line and discounts the Blue Line excessively, which is unreasonable. At 6.80 baht, the stock trades at a 2026 P/E of about 26.6 times with a dividend yield of approximately 2.4%.
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