The Thai stock market opened the morning of 30 Sep 2026 with heavy selling, especially in commercial bank stocks, many dropping more than 4%. This occurred amid consecutive days of net foreign selling, while concerns persisted about US bond yield direction and domestic flooding.
The overall market left almost no refuge this morning, with only 68 stocks rising versus 434 declining and 113 unchanged, meaning decliners outnumbered gainers by about six to one.
The index showed almost no rebound strength, weakening steadily shortly after the open and closing the morning session near the day's low, indicating selling pressure remains.
All 10 bank stocks declined, showing red across the board. The steepest falls were KTB, down 2.00 baht (-4.62%) to 41.25 baht, followed by BAY down 1.75 baht (-4.61%) to 36.25 baht, and KBANK down 10.00 baht (-4.13%) to 232.00 baht.
Meanwhile, CREDIT fell 3.15%, KKP 2.67%, TTB 2.67%, LHFG 2.44%, SCB 2.29%, BBL 1.85%, and TISCO declined the least at 0.40%, respectively.
The main pressures came from two sources: broad foreign capital outflows from Asian stock markets following rising US bond yields, prompting investors to reduce risky assets, and concerns over domestic flooding worsening market sentiment.
Nattapol Kamthakreua, Assistant Managing Director, Securities Analysis, Yuanta Securities (Thailand) Co., Ltd. . He commented to Thairath Money that foreign selling pressure on Thai stocks continues, marking six consecutive days of net sales with a sharp increase yesterday. This aligns with fund flow trends showing outflows from Asian stock markets after rising US bond yields, leading investors to reduce exposure to risky assets.
Examining regional stock markets, foreign investors sold Thai shares proportionally more than other countries. Besides fund flow factors, concerns about flooding and waterlogging added downward pressure on the market.
However, foreign investors have remained net buyers in Thai stocks since the start of the year, with significant accumulated purchases in commercial banks at about 33 billion baht, petrochemical stocks at 15 billion baht, and energy stocks at 82 billion baht.
Therefore, when reducing investment proportions, stocks in sectors with high foreign accumulation are more likely to face heavier selling than others.
From a fundamentals perspective, Q3 2026 earnings are not yet attractive and are expected to decline both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, as loan growth remains moderate and no dividend support is expected during this period. Earnings growth is anticipated to become clearer in Q4 2026.
Regarding stock prices, bank shares have dropped from high levels after a substantial prior run-up. Over the past five days, bank stocks fell on average about 6%. However, this decline alone may not signal a buying opportunity until foreign investor re-entry into the Thai stock market can be observed.
“What to watch is the upcoming US labor market data, as it influences bond yield direction. If figures fall short of market expectations, it could ease pressure on bond yields and potentially slow stock market selling,” Nattapol said.
Additionally, the flood situation in the country must be monitored. If it improves within the expected timeframe by 4 Oct, fund flow may begin returning to the Thai stock market afterward.
Nonetheless, bank stocks still have dividend appeal, with expected dividend yields of around 3-4% in the second half of the year. The top pick is SCB, expected to yield nearly 5% dividend yield in the latter half, while KTB's government loan growth supports an estimated dividend yield of about 4% in the same period.
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