The global investment atmosphere has clearly shifted back to a “risk caution” mode after unexpected geopolitical tensions erupted, especially the strained relations between the U.S. and Europe over the Greenland issue, which President Donald Trump has used as a trade bargaining chip.
This has shaken U.S. stock markets across nearly all industry sectors, while large sums of capital have fled volatility and flowed into gold as a safe-haven asset. This has driven global gold prices to consecutive record highs and pushed Thai gold prices above the 70,000 baht per baht gold level.
The root of this turmoil lies in Trump’s threat to impose a 10% tariff on imports from eight European countries in February, increasing to 25% in June if Europe does not allow the U.S. to “purchase Greenland.”
This issue immediately sent shockwaves through global stock markets, especially U.S. stocks which fell across technology, retail, and financial sectors, reflecting investors’ serious risk-reduction stance as follows:
Meanwhile, major European stock indexes from eight countries potentially affected by the issue also mostly declined as follows:
This sell-off of risky assets has clearly translated into increased gold buying. Gold Spot prices climbed to historic highs and continued to rise this morning, confirming that market concerns remain and reflecting patterns seen in past crises.
“Whenever risk spikes, gold is typically the first choice of global investors.”
Looking at the global gold price chart over the past year, it is clear that although 2025 saw a steady upward trend due to multiple global conflicts, early 2026 has seen an acceleration driven by this issue, with prices recently surpassing the $4,800 per ounce mark, a new all-time high, reflecting true “flight to safety” capital flows.
This has caused Thai gold prices to rise in tandem, according to data from YLG Bullion and Futures Company Limited (YLG). They reported that from the start of 2026 until 20 January, global gold prices surged past $4,700 per ounce, up over 9% from approximately $4,321 per ounce at the beginning of the year.
This rapid rise has caused weekly price gaps amid tension news during holidays. Thai gold (96.5% purity) hit a new high, rising nearly 7% since the start of the year. On 21 January, Thai gold prices increased by 1,050 baht, resulting in
Another factor investors should note is the weakening U.S. dollar due to expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates more than previously signaled, causing the baht to strengthen rapidly, sometimes dipping below 31 baht per U.S. dollar, further boosting domestic gold prices sharply and quickly.
YLG also stated that gold buying is driven not only by retail investors but also by many central banks, especially China and Russia, which are reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar—known as De-Dollarization—and increasing gold reserves to mitigate U.S. political and financial risks.
Sirilak Pakotiprapa, Director of Analysis at Hua Seng Heng Gold Futures Company Limited, commented to Thairath Money that the main factor pressuring global investment sentiment now remains the Greenland tension, which reflects a clear investment theme of “selling nearly all U.S. assets,” including dollar selling evidenced by its continuous weakening, and U.S. stock selling causing market declines.
She believes gold price trends will resemble April 2025, when Donald Trump announced tariffs on global trade, and gold prices rose over $400 within weeks. The current situation is likely similar if the Greenland issue remains unresolved.
Gold price momentum remains bullish as long as geopolitical tensions continue. She assesses that Trump is unlikely to relent given his serious interest in Greenland, using trade tariffs as leverage, while European countries have begun retaliatory measures.
However, investors must closely monitor Trump’s stance, as any signs of easing or changing position could trigger profit-taking in the gold market.
Currently, the target global gold price is $5,000 per ounce but may be revised upward due to new assumptions from the Greenland issue.
Regarding Thai gold prices in the long term, reaching 100,000 baht per baht gold is possible but likely not this year; it may take 2–3 years as gold remains a strategic investment asset for global investors and institutions.
Meanwhile, central banks worldwide are expected to continue buying gold. Data from the first 11 months of 2025 shows purchases exceeding 731 tons. Over the long term, reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar is expected to continue.
If the situation eases, global gold prices may weaken back to the $4,500–4,600 per ounce range, while Thai gold prices are expected to hold above 67,000–68,000 baht.
In the short term, during the first quarter, prices are expected to remain at these levels. If gold prices pull back, it is seen as a buying opportunity due to strong long-term positive factors supporting gold prices.
Meanwhile, Thipa Nawawattanasap, CEO of YLG Bullion and Futures Company Limited (YLG), noted that gold prices have surged sharply in just 20 days this year, with global gold up 9% and Thai gold nearly 7%, supported by the baht’s appreciation. Most international financial institutions have set 2026 targets between $4,900 and $5,000 per ounce, based on a survey showing that
The main positive factors come from concerns over Trump’s policies, including the plan to acquire Greenland and the potential impact on trade wars with Europe, as well as tensions with Iran.
These have weakened the U.S. dollar as capital shifts away from Western risks into gold as a safe haven, while central banks continue to accumulate gold.
She recommends investing gradually with a Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy for long-term holding, supplemented by short-term trading opportunities. Key support is at $4,660 per ounce, resistance at $4,720–$4,750, with a main target of $4,900–$5,000 per ounce this year.
Additionally, futures investment is suggested as an alternative during high gold price periods since it requires only 10% of the gold price for investment and can profit in any market condition.
Meanwhile, Intergold Gold Trade Company Limited stated in their analysis that the core strategy revolves around “how comfortable you can be after gold passes 70,000 baht.” Their view is that long-term holding is still reasonable if the cost is appropriate, as the major trend supports it.
However, short-term traders should focus heavily on risk management and watch for possible price corrections. Important levels to watch are support at $4,800 (Thai gold about 70,400 baht) and resistance at $4,900 (Thai gold about 71,500 baht). If prices pull back near support and hold, it will test buyers’ resolve.
If support breaks or there is heavy profit-taking, beware of a deep correction amid already high volatility. On the upside, breaking resistance would confirm bullish momentum but requires discipline on risk points since strong rallies often bring strong swings.
Read more stock and investment news at Thairath Money
Follow the Facebook page: Thairath Money at this link