Buy Now or Wait? Unveiling the New Investment Phase for Gold

This morning (24 Jul), domestic gold prices opened down 700 baht, following a 400 baht drop the day before, reflecting continued market volatility even though gold had recently broken above the 66,000 baht level.

This has led investors to question whether they should hurry to buy or wait for further price dips.

InterGOLD views the current recovery mainly as a technical rebound rather than the start of a new upward trend, citing key support at 65,600 baht and resistance near 67,000 baht. They recommend investors gradually take profits as prices approach resistance and avoid chasing strong price increases.

Behind the current gold price volatility are multiple key factors beyond mere market buying and selling, including:

• Tensions in the Middle East pushing oil prices higher and increasing inflation risks.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate direction remains a crucial variable for gold prices.
• The baht's depreciation to about 33.8 baht per dollar helps support domestic gold prices despite fluctuations in global gold prices.
• Ongoing gold purchases by central banks worldwide continue to provide medium-term support.

This aligns with the view of Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch), which assesses that gold price direction in the latter half of 2026 will depend mainly on geopolitical situations and Fed interest rate policies.

If Middle East conflicts ease, reducing inflation pressures, and the Fed refrains from tight monetary policies, gold prices could recover more strongly. Conversely, prolonged wars, sustained high energy prices, and accelerating inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer, pressuring gold prices.

Nonetheless, KResearch sees structural buying by central banks globally as an important "buffer" for the gold market mid-term. Data from the World Gold Council shows 78% of central banks hold gold to reduce geopolitical risks, and over 80% use gold to diversify their reserves.

So, what should investors do?

For short-term speculators, chasing rapidly rising prices may not be advisable due to ongoing market volatility influenced by war news and Fed meetings.

For medium- to long-term investors, gold remains a valuable portfolio diversifier, but accumulation should be done gradually in phases rather than in one lump sum, with close monitoring of macroeconomic factors.

In summary, gold is "not yet in a full bull market," but this is not a signal to exit the market either. The most important thing is to choose buying and selling timings that suit one's risk tolerance.

Source: Analysis by InterGOLD, Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch), World Gold Council (WGC).

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