At the beginning of 2026, gold prices surged past 80,000 baht per baht-weight, but now have dropped to 64,000 baht, causing many investors to be "stuck on the mountain" and start worrying about how to adjust their gold investment plans.
Thairath Money summarizes key points about gold prices for the second half of 2026 from the programMoney Issue EP. 70which invited two experts, Sirilak Pakotiprapa, Director of Analysis at Hu Seng Heng Gold Futures Co., Ltd., and Benjama Main, Director of Analysis at YLG Bullion International Co., Ltd. (YLG). They dive deep into all dimensions of gold to help everyone understand it easily.
Earlier this year, Thai gold prices surpassed 80,000 baht per baht-weight, and the global gold spot price once exceeded 5,500 U.S. dollars per ounce. However, it has since been in a continuous downtrend, with the lowest Gold Spot price this year at 3,950 U.S. dollars per ounce.
The main reason for the sharp gold price drop Benjama from YLG explained that from 2025 into early 2026, gold prices rose sharply. But shortly after the U.S.-Iran conflict began, demand for cash increased and profit-taking selling pressure emerged, especially in the gold ETF market, leading to a major correction. In the short term, several factors could cause gold price volatility.
First, movements by U.S. President Donald Trump via platforms like Truth Social, whose tweets may have cascading effects, and the need to monitor the U.S.-Iran war situation, which directly impacts gold prices. For example, if the war eases, oil prices may fall, reducing inflation and leading the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease its aggressive interest rate hikes, potentially boosting gold prices. Conversely, if the war continues, it could pressure gold prices downward.
But how far it will drop is Sirilak from Hu Seng Heng who shared that based on historical gold price movements, analysts and investors watch two key Gold Spot levels: 3,800 and 3,600 U.S. dollars per ounce. Falling below these points means breaching the 200-day moving average (SMA 200), which technically signals a downtrend both short- and long-term.
Overall, for the second half of 2026, there are five factors to watch: 1) the U.S.-Iran war, 2) the Fed's policy interest rate direction, 3) investor fund flows, which have seen large outflows from gold since the war began, 4) the U.S. midterm elections on 3 November 2026, and 5) de-dollarization and central bank buying pressure.
With gold price volatility, many think it might surge again, but how do analysts see this?
Starting with Benjama from YLG, who said gold has already corrected. While there is some chance of price recovery, the likelihood of rebounding above 80,000 baht per baht-weight remains very low, especially given current circumstances.
She expects Thai gold prices in 2026 to occasionally rise to around 77,000 baht per baht-weight, with Gold Spot possibly reaching 4,890 to 5,000 U.S. dollars per ounce. Long-term, she views gold prices near 3,900 to 4,000 U.S. dollars per ounce as a value zone ideal for accumulation.
“The 2020 correction lasted about 790 days, so applying about 61.8% of that period suggests this correction could continue until May 2027—meaning investors should endure for another 10 months. After the correction ends, gold prices may rise, but if the Fed aggressively raises rates, the correction could be prolonged,” Benjama said.
Meanwhile, Sirilak from Hu Seng Heng shares the view that gold prices likely will not reach 80,000 baht in 2026 but in 2027 investors "stuck on the mountain" may finally get relief. She expects Thai gold prices to reach 74,000 to 75,000 baht per baht-weight, with Gold Spot resistance at 4,500 U.S. dollars per ounce. If this level is surpassed, gold could climb to 4,900 to 5,000 U.S. dollars per ounce.
Historically, global gold has averaged a 16% annual return over ten years (Thai gold is similar). Also, after sharp declines, gold often rebounds strongly—for instance, in 2023, prices fell 15% but then gained 30%. Therefore, there is still an expectation that in the third and fourth quarters of 2027, gold could hit an all-time high.
“If at the end of 2026 gold is around 4,900 to 5,000 U.S. dollars and rises another 16%, that would be about 5,700 to 5,800 dollars, indicating investors stuck at 5,500 dollars will have escaped the 'mountain' next year,” Sirilak said.
Year-end 2026 gold price forecasts
Hu Seng Heng: 4,500 U.S. dollars per ounce (70,000 baht per baht-weight)
YLG: 4,100 to 4,300 U.S. dollars per ounce (65,000 to 67,000 baht per baht-weight) assuming the Fed hikes rates once in 2026
In the Money Issue program discussion, both Sirilak from Hu Seng Heng and Benjama from YLG recommend a key investment strategy for gold, short- or long-term: avoid going all-in and choose investment forms suited to your actual risk tolerance. They outline:
1. For beginners or those without time,
they recommend the Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy, gradually accumulating gold with equal amounts regularly. This approach best avoids emotional decisions, reduces timing risks, and builds long-term saving discipline. They see Gold Spot prices below 4,000 U.S. dollars per ounce as a good entry point.
2. For experienced investors,
Sirilak suggests dividing funds into parts and buying in stages at desired price levels, as gold prices can fluctuate both ways. This staggered buying helps spread investment costs. For example, divide investment money into three parts.
3. For short-term speculators,
Benjama initially recommends buying at 3,900 to 4,000 U.S. dollars per ounce but notes that this year's gold speculation differs from 2025. Shorter-term trades are advisable due to changed fundamentals and a price rebound expected within a limited range.
For example, if buying around 3,900 to 4,000 dollars, selling for short-term profits is suitable if the price rebounds but fails to break resistance near 4,200 dollars. If it breaks above 4,200, it’s better to let profits run up toward the upper target of 4,800 to 4,900 dollars.
Finally, although gold is viewed as a safe asset, price volatility means investors must plan carefully and avoid concentrating risk solely in gold. For those interested in detailed insights, they can watch the full episode ofMoney Issue EP. 70online.
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