A significant event has shaken the global gold investment scene as spot gold prices surged strongly, breaking through the key $4,600 per ounce level with impressive momentum.
Thai investors currently holding gold tightly and feeling the urge to sell and take profits after seeing domestic gold bar prices hit 71,150 baht.
Experts unanimously caution against rushing to sell now because fundamental and technical indicators still signal that the gold uptrend is just beginning and could extend further than expected.
This surge is supported by a unanimous confluence of three major macroeconomic drivers acting simultaneously, including:
All these factors have fueled gold's rise, making it the most sought-after asset right now.
The global gold market has increased for the third straight week (gaining over $226, nearly 5%), surpassing $4,600 per ounce. Analysts agree gold has broken free from its previous range and fully entered a major medium- and long-term uptrend, with positive signals starting from early August.
A key factor comes from US monetary policy, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced doubling the long-term Treasury bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, with possible further increases.
Though intended to keep bond yields from rising too high and harming the economy, this measure has undermined confidence in the US financial system, weakening the dollar near multi-month lows and strongly driving funds into gold.
At the same time, escalating geopolitical risks have added fuel, with the US-Iran ceasefire agreement ending and no signs of new negotiations.
Worse, concerns over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and threats of severe sanctions have pushed Brent crude oil prices to $94.39 per barrel, risking triggering a new wave of inflation.
This situation pressured global institutional investors like the SPDR Gold Trust to rapidly adjust portfolios, evidenced by its week-long purchase of 23.68 tonnes, confirming gold's role as a genuine safe haven.
Turning to the domestic gold market, despite the global gold price surge, Thai gold faces pressure from a rapidly strengthening baht due to the weaker US dollar. Still, 96.5% pure gold bar prices in Thailand rose 2,400 baht over the week and continued to increase this morning.
Sirilak Pakotiprapa, Director of Analysis at Hua Seng Heng Gold Futures Co., Ltd. She stated in the Hua Seng Heng Morning News that technical analysis shows global gold prices have strong momentum and are likely to continue rising, as short-, medium-, and long-term trends have fully aligned into an uptrend, although short-term technical corrections due to overbought conditions may occur.
For investors already holding gold bars, she recommends continuing to hold long-term, expecting prices to rise steadily for the rest of the year, with no need to sell hastily.
For those without gold who want to buy, she advises waiting for price pullbacks to key domestic support levels between 70,550 and 70,900 baht.
For futures markets, opening long positions at $4,600 per ounce is advised, with stop-loss orders at $4,560 per ounce to manage risk.
Targets include technical resistance levels at $4,640 and $4,665 per ounce, and support levels at $4,580 and $4,560 per ounce.
/ Analysis from YLG Bullion International Co., Ltd. YLG notes short-term price structure shows warning signs of overbought conditions and Bearish Divergence on 1-hour and 4-hour charts, urging investors to exercise caution and wait for price corrections before buying.
Investment strategy recommends focusing on 'buy on dips, sell on rallies' rounds. For existing long positions unable to break resistance between $4,641 and $4,652, partial profit-taking is advised.
If prices surpass $4,652, holding positions to target the next resistance and moving trailing stops up to $4,563 per ounce is recommended.
New buying opportunities should await price pullbacks without breaching the first key support at $4,563, with stops set if spot prices fall below $4,450, signaling a consolidation phase.
They set domestic 96.5% gold bar support at 70,550 and 69,550 baht (stop loss at 68,800 baht), resistance at 71,950 and 72,700 baht, and next target at 73,850 baht.
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