The first half of 2026 has seen a remarkable recovery in the Thai stock market. The SET Index has risen more than 300 points, or about 26%, since the start of the year, surpassing 1,590 points, reflecting sustained buying driven by gradually improving fundamentals.
However, the Investment Analysts Association (IAA) believes that despite the index and stock prices having already risen significantly, there is still momentum for further gains.
A survey of analysts and fund managers about the outlook for the Thai stock market in the second half of 2026 found that the investment climate is becoming more optimistic.
This aligns with foreign fund flows, which are steadily returning to the Thai stock market, helping to drive the market for the remainder of the year.
Sombat Narawutichai, Secretary-General of the Investment Analysts Association (IAA). He revealed that in the third quarter of 2026, 52% of survey respondents expect the market to perform well, while 40% anticipate sideways movement. Investors should closely monitor government economic stimulus measures, interest rate trends, inflation, and U.S. Federal Reserve policies.
The average index level at the end of the third quarter of 2026 is estimated to be 1,608 points.
Looking toward year-end, the market is supported by positive factors, especially foreign fund inflows, easing war tensions, and other structural positives. This suggests that stocks that have already risen significantly may still have room to advance further.
At the same time, there are negative factors to watch, such as the still-unstable energy prices and the unpredictable actions of Donald Trump.
Regarding corporate earnings, the average earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2026 has been revised upward to 96.04 baht from the previous survey’s 87.64 baht (about 88 baht), representing average growth of 10.20%.
The energy and petrochemical sectors are expected to deliver strong profits. Overall, Thai stocks have the potential to rebound and outperform, supported by political stability and returning fund flows.
For attractive industries, investment weight is recommended for sectors tied to domestic consumption, stocks benefiting from government investment, those benefiting from the tourism recovery in the second half of the year, and other industries advantaged by lower oil prices.
The SET Index target for this year is expected to close at an average of 1,619 points. About 4.76% of respondents believe the index could reach a high between 1,801 and 1,900 points.
The five standout stocks recommended by at least four securities analysts are as follows.
Chayut Krailasratanasiri, Assistant Director of Securities Analysis at Land and Houses Securities Public Company Limited. He noted that recent fund flows have mainly entered the commercial banking sector, led by SCB and followed by KBANK, amid global central banks raising interest rates with limited room for future cuts, making banking stocks attractive.
Regarding Thai interest rates, it is assessed that the downward cycle has ended and rates are expected to remain steady for a while to observe inflation trends amid ongoing impacts from oil prices potentially pushing costs into other goods. The stable interest rate level supports commercial banks positively.
Additionally, fund flows are expected to continue speculating on high-dividend stocks in the second half, as the market enters the interim dividend season alongside financial reporting. Mid-month will begin with bank earnings announcements, making high-dividend stocks in the SETHD group and several commercial banks key targets for ongoing investment inflows.
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