Who would have thought that the strongest-performing stock in the SET50, drawing significant attention, is not a cutting-edge technology or major industrial stock, but rather an agricultural and food company like TFG, or Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited.
Its share price has strongly outperformed the market, soaring from just over 4 baht last year to around 10.60 baht, representing an increase of more than 137% since the start of the year.
Thairath Money explores the secret formula behind this pig and chicken farming business that has become a stock investors must watch closely.
In the past, TFG was a producer and distributor of chicken, pork, and animal feed, with revenue fluctuating mainly based on farm-gate meat prices. Whenever pork and chicken prices dropped, profits shrank, as seen in 2023 when the company faced losses due to a severe decline in pork prices.
Currently, TFG has revamped its business by shedding its traditional slaughterhouse image and aggressively entering the retail food sector through launching meat and fresh food stores under the "Thai Foods Fresh Market" brand.
The advantage of owning retail outlets is that the company can increase profit margins by selling directly to consumers, thereby reducing reliance on volatile farm-gate prices and significantly stabilizing gross margins.
Moreover, in 2026, the company plans an aggressive expansion, aiming to open up to 850 branches nationwide.
This means TFG is no longer just a pig and chicken farmer but is transforming into a fully integrated food business player, covering upstream, midstream, and downstream operations—from animal feed production, breeding, processing, to retail sales directly to consumers through its own stores.
Looking at the latest revenue structure from Q1 2026, retail business has become the company's main income source, overtaking livestock farming which was previously the core business, reflecting the shift from agricultural producer to integrated food retailer.
This model allows TFG to reduce dependence on commodity prices alone, generating revenue from higher-margin businesses with greater pricing power, resulting in more stable financial performance than in the past.
Reviewing historical financial figures, past and recent revenues and profits clearly illustrate the positive impact and progress of this business model transformation.
Most recently, in Q1 2026, revenue reached 17,740 million baht and net profit was 2,047 million baht, indicating a strong start to the year.
Comparing profit growth to the stock price, now trading around 10.50 baht, shows a significant improvement in profitability.
Currently, TFG has a high return on equity (ROE) of 36.51% and return on assets (ROA) of 20.14%, indicating robust capital efficiency and strong returns on invested funds.
Despite the sharp share price increase, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remains low at 8.45 times, below the industry average of 12.49 times.
However, while recent performance looks strong, Q2 2026 may present challenges due to softer pork and chicken prices impacting earnings.
This, however, has not diminished analysts' confidence in the stock's potential, with most maintaining a positive long-term outlook.
Latest data from the Investment Analysts Association (IAA Consensus), compiling views from 11 research houses, shows a predominantly positive sentiment: 9 recommend "buy," 2 recommend "hold."
The average price target for 2026 stands at 11.88 baht, with a low estimate of 9.10 baht and a high of 15.05 baht.
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) maintains a "buy" rating, slightly lowering its year-end 2026 price target to 12.10 baht from 12.40 baht to reflect a 2% increase in shares due to warrant exercises.
Since Q2 2026 earnings are expected to be temporarily weak due to downward pressure on meat prices, but the stock price has risen sharply,
the recommendation is to find opportunities to lock in short-term profits, then gradually re-enter and accumulate after the company's financial results are announced, expected around 10 Aug 2026, to prepare for the next growth phase.
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