The Thai stock market is entering a phase where earnings fundamentals are gaining more influence after listed companies' profit estimates have been continuously revised upwards. The latest average forecast from Bloomberg analysts shows the market's overall earnings per share (EPS) have been raised to 107.60 baht per share, a record high.
The key point is not just the EPS reaching a new high, but that the upward revision of earnings estimates is helping to ease valuation pressures despite the SET index's recent gains.
Analysts believe that the upward revision of profits is driving the index to potentially continue advancing amid global market volatility caused by oil prices, U.S. government bond yields, and interest rate trends.
The upward revision of EPS is significant for valuation because as expected future earnings increase, the Forward P/E ratio will decrease accordingly.
Therefore, even though the Thai stock market has already risen, if EPS continues to be revised upwards, the market will have "earnings" to support higher price levels.
This indicates that the current SET rally is not just due to investors willing to pay higher P/E ratios, but the market is rising alongside an elevated earnings base, unlike rallies driven solely by valuation expansion.
Pi Asset Management Public Company Limited The firm notes the market is still monitoring second-quarter 2026 earnings results of listed companies. The latest average analyst estimates from Bloomberg show overall market profits have been raised to 107.6 baht per share, an all-time high and the highest this year, resulting in a current Forward P/E of just 15.1 times. This improved earnings outlook supports the likelihood of the SET index continuing to advance.
They forecast today's SET trading range to be 1,615–1,645 points, viewing improved market fundamentals from EPS revisions as a supporting factor. They recommend continuing to invest in stocks with strong fundamentals including:
However, external factors remain variables that may limit the market's upside. Rising crude oil prices benefit energy stocks like PTTEP, PTTGC, and PTT.
On the other hand, higher oil prices could increase costs and inflationary pressures, while U.S. government bond yields have risen on both 2-year and especially 10-year maturities, potentially pressuring risk assets and increasing stock market volatility.
Besides the upward earnings revisions, the Thai stock market must also watch the MSCI index weight adjustment scheduled for 13 August, which could lead to buying and speculative trading in certain stocks.
Dao Securities (Thailand) They see the MSCI Rebalance weight adjustment possibly causing short-term speculative inflows into some stocks. However, investment strategies should still focus on stocks with strong fundamentals, especially those expected to report good and continuously growing earnings, as MSCI-driven speculation may only provide temporary support.
. Innovest X They state that the Thai stock market is likely to remain volatile in the short term, with attention on trading activity from the MSCI Rebalance. Market signals also show sector rotation, with funds likely moving into lagging stocks and those with relatively low foreign investor ownership.
Therefore, investment strategies should emphasize selective buying—choosing stocks with solid fundamentals and potential for continued earnings growth rather than chasing short-term speculative trading from index weight adjustments.
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