This year, investors face multiple challenges: the Thai stock market remains stagnant, the economy grows slowly, AI is disrupting business models, and the anticipated crisis has yet to materialize. In this situation, how should investors position themselves?
This question was discussed at MONEY FEST 2026: The Money Game Level Up Your Life!, an investment festival by Thairath Money that brought together topics on stocks, funds, real estate, gold, digital assets, FinTech, and future investment in one event.
The opening session, Survive the Uncertainty: What’s Next for VI?, featured Dr. Nives Hemvachiravarakorn, a legendary Thai VI investor, who shared insights on the problems of the Thai stock market and economy, how to identify truly cheap stocks versus those declining due to fading business prospects, the impact of AI, and why he currently holds significant cash. These key points offer both novice and professional investors immediate takeaways to review their portfolios.
According to Dr. Nives, a stock market drop of about 20-30% is generally required to define a "crisis," which usually gives no clear early warning signs—if everyone anticipated it and prepared, it might not become a crisis at all.
Therefore, the period to be cautious is when the market is active, investors are enthusiastic, and most believe prices will continue rising.
"Be cautious when the market is exuberant, because crises often occur during those times."
Though the Thai stock index has recovered over 30% from its low, standout returns are concentrated in a few sectors over a short period. Many retail investors barely feel the market has improved. This shows that focusing solely on the index is insufficient; actual returns depend on which stocks investors hold and when they buy.
Over the past decade, Thailand’s economy and stock market have barely grown. The index, once around 1,700 points, remains below 1,600. Long-term holders of Thai equity funds may have seen little capital gain. A major overlooked issue is demographic structure: Thailand’s aging population grows, with more deaths than births.
Meanwhile, the new workforce is insufficient, and labor productivity hasn’t kept pace with changes. As the working population shrinks, purchasing power, consumption, and business growth potential decline. Without structural fixes, the next 10 years may be tougher than the last.
A falling price doesn’t automatically make a stock a good buy. Investors must ask if the business remains competitive, if customers still buy its products, if it continues expanding, and what growth potential it has.
Some stocks look cheap compared to the past because the company’s value is declining along with its price. Buying these may lead to a "cheap stock trap."
"Cheap doesn’t mean a good buy, because the company’s value may already have decreased."
More attractive stocks are quality businesses with strong futures but temporarily lower prices due to market conditions or short-term events.
Before buying a stock just because its price has dropped, Dr. Nives suggests re-examining the company’s fundamentals.
If not, the business may not be temporarily out of favor but truly losing importance.
Small-cap stocks may offer high returns but carry higher risk. Investors must know the businesses well and distinguish which companies have revenue, profit, and competitive strength.
If these qualities aren’t found, many small stocks may not justify the risks, so not buying is also a valid investment choice, not necessarily a missed opportunity.
Funds reduce the burden of selecting individual stocks, but fund name or past performance alone is insufficient. Investors must check which countries and business sectors the fund invests in, and whether those economies still have growth potential.
If a fund mainly holds Thai stocks, the key question is whether Thailand will have enough workforce, productivity, and growing businesses over the next 5-10 years to generate returns for unit holders.
AI can analyze data quickly and perform close to high IQ humans, but investing isn’t just about who calculates better or finds the right price.
AI lacks greed, fear, or delusion, while investors face these emotions during market swings. On heavy down days, advantage goes to those who control emotions and know when to buy, hold, or sell without letting fear dominate decisions.
"To be a good investor, you don’t need to be the smartest, but you must have EQ and make decisions during market downturns."
AI hype has led many to think certain jobs and industries will vanish, but reality is more complex. Hospitals still need doctors; programming in the US remains active as companies develop AI coping systems. Some sectors expected to disappear, like paper, still see increased use in some markets.
Investors should monitor changes themselves and distinguish between "market narratives" and the "actual business impact."
Although long-term holders are fewer now, Dr. Nives still believes in long-term investing. Selecting good companies with futures not easily disrupted by technology means investors don’t need to chase every market trend. The key is thoroughly studying businesses before buying, as long holding won’t turn a bad choice into a good one.
Dr. Nives revealed he currently holds a significant cash portion—not because he expects an imminent crisis, but because in the past five years, he hasn’t found stocks that meet all criteria: good business, growth potential, and attractive price. Many good stocks are too expensive to meet VI standards, while many cheap stocks lack future prospects.
If the market drops 30%, quality stocks previously unaffordable might become attractively priced. Cash thus serves as an "option," enabling investors to act when opportunities arise.
From Dr. Nives’ perspective, VI principles remain valid in the AI era, but application requires looking beyond just cheap prices. Investors must understand business, grasp economic structure, and control emotions during unfavorable markets. If they can’t find "good, cheap stocks with futures," holding cash or not investing may be better than buying out of fear of missing out.
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