At this moment, traders and investors worldwide are eagerly awaiting the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, or Fed. The market is not just anticipating whether interest rates will rise but is closely watching how many more hikes the Fed will signal.
The official results of this important meeting will be announced in the early morning of 17 September 2026, Thailand time.
The key reason forcing the Fed to seriously reconsider its interest rate direction is ongoing inflationary pressure and the continuous rise in global crude oil prices. The big question everyone is asking now is what decision the Fed will make and which stock sectors in the market will benefit from this round.
Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 92% likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 0.25%, even though most of the market has already priced in this expected hike.
What investors must watch closely is the "Dot Plot," which signals the Fed's projected path for interest rates going forward. Thairath Money invites readers to explore possible scenarios and a list of standout stocks that could emerge as winners in this rising interest rate cycle.
Asia Plus Securities Research notes that the key issue in this meeting is assessing the Fed's interest rate direction scenarios and their impact on the stock market. The first case: if the Fed holds rates at 3.75% and the Dot Plot signals only one hike this year, the stock market could rally strongly.
The second case: if the Fed raises rates to 4.00% as expected, with the Dot Plot indicating one hike this year, this would also support a market rebound.
However, the third case is if the Fed raises rates to 4.00% but the Dot Plot signals more than one hike this year; the stock market would face significant volatility risks immediately.
Meanwhile, Krungsri Securities' analysis suggests this rate hike is likely an "Insurance Hike," a short-term increase to mitigate risks before holding rates steady, due to persistent inflationary pressure from Brent crude oil prices staying high.
Pai Securities' analysis indicates the market expects the Fed may need up to four consecutive hikes to contain inflation driven by rising energy costs. Therefore, the Fed Chair's statement will be critical in determining global capital flows going forward.
With interest rates expected to remain elevated, Value and Defensive stocks have become primary investment targets.
Pai Securities points out beneficiaries from rising rates include banks such as BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB, and telecommunications like ADVANC. It also recommends retail stocks like CPALL, CPN, HMPRO, CRC, and hospital groups including BDMS, BH, BCH, and PR9.
Their top pick is BBL, with a target price of 213 baht, benefiting from domestic investment cycles supported by capital inflows into ASEAN, positively impacting loan growth and wealth management businesses.
Krungsri Securities views energy security-themed stocks like PTT, IVL, and SCC as supported by sustained high oil prices. Meanwhile, service and aviation stocks such as AOT, THAI, ERW, AWC, along with hospital groups BDMS and BCH, are seen as good accumulation opportunities ahead of year-end holidays and tourism stimulus measures.
Additionally, infrastructure, power plants, and industrial estate stocks like GULF, GPSC, BGRIM, STECON, PYLON, AMATA, and WHA are expected to benefit from speculation on new Data Center regulations and the PDP 2026 plan.
Asia Plus Securities adds that another economic support factor is the approval of the 2027 budget law with 3.79 trillion baht, including 789 billion baht in investment funds. This budget unlock will accelerate mega projects, boosting contractor and building materials stocks such as CK, STECON, SCC, SCCC, TPIPL, and retail groups like CPALL, CPAXT, BJC.
Therefore, the key investment issue may not just be the 0.25% rate hike itself, but the Fed's signals about the future interest rate direction. Investors need to closely follow the Dot Plot and Fed statements to assess whether this hike marks the start of a continuous rate increase.
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