Heavy rain from 25-27 September 2026 dealt a significant blow to Thailand's economic activity, especially in Bangkok and its metropolitan area, where many locations experienced flooding, travel disruptions, and forced evacuations of residents.
Meanwhile, the situation in several provinces remains under close observation, notably in the eastern region around Rayong, where reports indicate water overflowing into communities and urgent evacuations of some residents.
Recent data show that the impact goes beyond damage to homes and property, extending to economic activities such as retail, restaurants, transportation, services, and businesses reliant on consumer mobility.
Kasikorn Research Center’s preliminary assessment estimates the net economic impact at approximately 7 to 17 billion baht, or 0.03-0.11% of GDP, assuming the situation does not prolong or worsen. Some business sectors may benefit in the near term from spending on repair and restoration after the floods recede.
Regarding the Thai stock market, although flood pressures have heightened short-term investor caution, a key question remains: which stock sectors will be affected to varying degrees, and which might turn from victims to beneficiaries after the waters subside? Thairath Money delves into the broad impact and sector-specific effects.
Securities analyst at Kasikorn Securities. The analyst estimates that this flooding event has created short-term investment pressure due to damage affecting households, businesses, and economic activities across multiple regions.
The analysis cites over 580,000 households affected across 41 provinces, at least 8 fatalities, and nearly 6,000 evacuees in Bangkok. Preliminary economic damage is estimated at 11 to 12.3 billion baht, potentially reducing 2026 GDP by about 0.3%.
The Rayong situation remains critical after a reservoir exceeded capacity, prompting evacuation orders. This represents a short-term negative momentum for the overall Thai stock market, though the impact is expected to be less severe than the 2001 floods.
Conditions have begun to improve in many areas, so if the SET Index continues to soften, it could be regarded as an "opportunity to gradually accumulate."
However, the market had partially priced in concerns yesterday, with the SET Index closing at 1,600.54 points, down 7.09 points or 0.44%. This morning at 12:14 p.m., the index fell further to 1,597.75 points, down 4.62 points or 0.29% from the previous day.
. Research department of Asia Plus Securities. They assess that flood conditions in Thailand, particularly in Bangkok and its vicinity, have eased since heavy continuous rains like those over the weekend stopped. Without further rainfall, impacts are expected to remain limited.
Nonetheless, this natural disaster has affected business sectors differently and is expected to have only short-term effects, categorized as follows.
1. Beneficiary sectors
The construction materials sector stands out as the sole beneficiary, expected to gain from increased demand for repairing homes and infrastructure after the floodwaters recede.
2. Sectors still receiving support
Retail, hospitals, and food sectors are expected to maintain growth due to stockpiling of consumer goods, demand for medications, and medical treatments for waterborne illnesses.
3. Sectors to watch closely
Electronics, power plants, construction contractors, agriculture, and commercial banks might experience indirect effects via supply chain disruptions or a slight rise in non-performing loans (NPLs).
4. Negatively impacted sectors
Tourism, residential property development (real estate), and hire-purchase credit sectors are clearly disadvantaged as consumers delay travel and home purchases, and the repayment capacity of individual borrowers may decline.
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