Krungsri Asset Management Company Limited (Krungsri AM) Krungsri AM assesses that the global economy will continue expanding in the second half of 2024 despite risks from the Middle East situation and inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, AI investment remains a key driver of the global economy. They advise investors to diversify portfolios by increasing defensive stocks alongside technology stocks to better balance risks and manage market volatility in the latter half of the year.
Sira Klongwicha, Chief Investment Officer of Krungsri Asset Management Company Limited (Krungsri AM) He stated that the main factors shaping the global economy in the second half of the year remain geopolitical issues, including trade wars, the US presidential election, and the Middle East situation. These could impact oil prices and global inflation, which may slightly accelerate this year due to rising energy and semiconductor costs before slowing down in 2027.
For Thailand, economic growth outperformed expectations with Q1 GDP expanding 2.8%, higher than market forecasts. Key drivers include 17% export growth in the first half of the year, particularly in AI-related products. Thailand is one of four main Asian countries playing a role in this supply chain, alongside a manufacturing sector recovery.
Looking ahead, investment promotion applications (BOI) total over 1.2 trillion baht, mostly flowing into data center and cloud projects by global technology firms. This will support long-term growth of Thailand's economy. However, challenges remain in the private consumption recovery, impacted by high household debt, rising living costs due to inflation, and a slow tourism sector recovery caused by elevated global travel costs.
The Thai stock market maintains a positive outlook, supported by economic stimulus measures, foreign capital inflows, and strong BOI applications. Meanwhile, the SET's earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2026 has been revised up to 96.87 baht per share.
Krungsri AM projects the SET index to have a lower bound between 1,400 and 1,700 points in the second half, with a potential rise to 1,650-1,700 points if corporate earnings reports are better than the market's concerns.
Although Thai stocks are not a high-growth market, they offer an attractive average dividend yield of 5-7% and strong corporate balance sheets, suitable for investors seeking stability and cash flow. Structural risks to monitor include Delta stocks, which account for nearly 20% of market capitalization but contribute less than 3% of actual earnings.
Regarding foreign stock markets, Krungsri AM sees risk assets still capable of generating good returns, especially technology stocks with strong profit growth. Among these, artificial intelligence (AI) technology remains the most prominent investment theme in 2026, driven by ongoing expansion in AI investments to meet rapidly increasing demand.
For investment strategies in the second half, investors should consider three main factors: geopolitical direction, AI investment trends, and balanced portfolio diversification between growth and defensive assets to handle global market volatility.
For moderately risk-tolerant investors, Krungsri AM recommends a neutral weighting in stocks by holding growth assets alongside defensive stocks. The core portfolio is advised to invest in global equity indices due to their efficiency and steady progress, with an unhedged currency exposure recommended because current hedging costs are very high, at 3.2-3.4% per year.
For the satellite portfolio, a Barbell strategy is suggested: allocate 10% to high-growth sectors such as Global Tech, Asia Tech, and Chinese Tech, while increasing holdings in Global Dividend and Healthcare stocks to reduce portfolio volatility.
For the bond market, Krungsri AM assigns a neutral investment weighting, seeing limited scope for interest rate cuts. Current bond yields remain attractive. Key factors to watch include inflation trends, oil prices, and the Strait of Hormuz situation, which could affect central bank policies globally. However, the Bank of Thailand is not expected to raise rates as the economy has yet to fully recover its potential.
Krungsri AM notes opportunities for returns in foreign bonds, especially in the US market, which appear more attractive than Thai bonds. They caution against concentration in Private Credit, which may be vulnerable to prolonged high borrowing costs. The recommendation is to hold 10% in short-term bonds to maintain liquidity, alongside 20-25% in Thai medium- to long-term bonds, and increase foreign bond allocations with unhedged currency exposure between 20-50% to avoid hedging costs.
Supaporn Leenabanchong, Managing Director of Krungsri Asset Management Company Limited (Krungsri AM), revealed that as of the end of June, AUM stood at 691 billion baht, comprising 531 billion in mutual funds, 101 billion in private funds, and 59 billion in provident funds. The company holds a 6.3% market share and maintains a full-year AUM target of 720 billion baht.
"In the first half, Krungsri AM continued to develop investment products, collaborating with leading global asset manager Invesco to launch three new funds: KF-GEI with a fund size of 1,398 million baht, KF-SP500M, and KF-SP500MFX with a combined size of 1,352 million baht."
They maintain leadership in foreign currency funds covering equities, bonds, and thematic investments, totaling over 1.39 billion baht. For the second half of 2024, the company plans to continue developing investment products and expand collaborations with top fund managers to offer diversified new funds that meet investor needs in all economic conditions.
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