In 2025, the Thai baht has continuously strengthened by over 9% since the beginning of the year, becoming a pressing issue that Prime Minister and Minister of Interior Anutin Charnvirakul has instructed authorities to address promptly. However, by year-end, the baht remained strong; on 23 Dec, it reached 31.11 baht per US dollar—the strongest in four years. Additionally, the Japanese yen weakened to its lowest level in 28 and a half years.
How can individuals and small-scale consumers make the most of these developments?
How significant are the recent baht strength and yen weakness? Rung Sanguanruang, Senior Director of Global Markets Planning at Bank of Ayudhya (BAY), told Thairath Money that the yen's decline to 22-23 baht per 100 yen mid-year was already significant. But on 22 Dec, it dropped further to 19.94 baht per 100 yen, the lowest in 28.5 years, dating back to 1997.
Although on 23 Dec the yen rebounded slightly to 19.76 baht per 100 yen, it remains substantially weakened. The baht strengthened due to record-high gold prices, while the yen weakened because investors lack confidence in Japan's fiscal policy. Despite two policy rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) this year, real interest rates remain negative, insufficient to support yen strength. The yen might briefly strengthen if Japanese authorities intervene to stabilize the currency, but persistent fiscal concerns suggest continued yen weakness.
Meanwhile, the baht's continuous strength has persisted despite urgent statements from the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Thailand (BOT), and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which have had limited market impact.
Therefore, by the end of 2025, the baht is expected to hover around 31.00 baht per US dollar, as the BOT likely aims to prevent it from falling below this level. However, gold prices remain a key variable; any pause in gold's rise could slow baht appreciation. In 2026, the baht may settle around the mid-30 baht range (approximately 30.50 baht per US dollar), with gold prices closely watched.
Read more:Who benefits or loses from baht fluctuations? Weekly volatility impacts both buyers and sellers.
When the baht strengthens, those traveling abroad, shopping online, investing, or paying in foreign currencies effectively receive a discount due to better exchange rates. What strategies can each group employ to maximize value?
1. Travelers: Plan your currency exchange ahead.
With the baht's current strength, anyone planning a trip to Japan can benefit by gradually exchanging yen now. For example, earlier this year, 100 yen cost 24 baht; today it only costs 19-20 baht. This equates to nearly a 20% discount on expenses like dining, shopping, and sightseeing.
A useful approach is to stagger currency exchanges or use dollar-cost averaging (DCA). This can be done via travel cards, debit cards, or prepaid cards where baht is loaded and converted to foreign currency in advance. When abroad, these can be used for contactless payments or ATM withdrawals in local currency.
Importantly, travelers to Japan should also plan for the 10% tax refund (Tax-Free), making purchases of branded goods or collectible figures more cost-effective now.
2. Investors & bill payers: Settle foreign bills and buy global stocks.
A strong baht is a golden opportunity for importers and those with expenses denominated in foreign currencies.
For investors buying foreign stocks—whether US tech shares or Japan's Nikkei index—it now costs fewer baht to exchange for foreign currency. If the stocks' fundamentals are sound, this means acquiring quality assets at a lower price from the outset.
Another important point is many people pay foreign currency bills unknowingly, such as subscriptions to multinational platforms. It's important to review these expenses carefully.
If you plan to pay annual subscription fees now, doing so when the baht is strongest effectively locks in lower costs for the entire year.
Similarly, those preparing to study abroad can benefit by exchanging foreign currency now, hedging against potential future baht depreciation.
These small strategies can help simplify your financial planning amid baht strength and yen weakness. Thairath Money will continue to share valuable tips in the future.
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