Over the past five years, Thailand's number of newborns has declined by an average of about 4.5% annually, while the population aged 18 and under has decreased by an average of 2.3% per year, continuing to fall in the latest year.
Structurally, this signals a clear contraction in the country's quantitative demand for education. Yet, at the same time, one sector is growing notably against this trend: Thailand's international school market. Data for 2025 estimates the national market value at no less than 94 billion baht, expanding at an average annual rate of 10.6% since 2020. The number of international school students grows by about 10% each year, with growth rates in "provincial" areas far exceeding those in Bangkok.
This situation indicates that although "Thai children are fewer," the number attending international schools is increasing — a dynamic driven by affluent parents.
Research by LH Bank estimates that the number of Thais with assets exceeding 1 million US dollars (approximately 31 million baht) will reach 162,000 by 2026, growing at an average annual rate of 11.7%. This group is concentrated in Bangkok, its metropolitan area, and new economic cities such as the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), Phuket, Chiang Mai, and Pattaya.
Simultaneously, the number of high-skilled foreign workers (executives, specialists in technology, finance, tourism) has risen by an average of 9.3% annually over the past five years, with growth exceeding 13% in the latest year.
This group shares a common trait: when resources are sufficient, one of their first expenditures is "the best education for their children." International schools therefore represent not just curriculum choice but a shortcut to foreign universities, English proficiency, global skills, and social networks.
What we observe is that as the number of children decreases, schools shift their model toward High Value - Low Volume, raising tuition fees in exchange for more personalized care. This explains why, despite fewer births, international schools continue to have substantial growth potential.
While international schools expand branches into economic regional cities, many Thai schools face the opposite condition.
The reasons are straightforward and can be explained by economic and demographic structures: fewer births and high household debt reduce parents' purchasing power, while school costs rise. As a result, some parents must transfer their children to public schools to reduce financial burdens.
Another group "moves" to international schools, while the middle ground—small private Thai curriculum schools—is being squeezed. This impact affects not only the school businesses but also communities, as children must travel farther and face increased risks of dropping out of the education system.
Altogether, this illustrates how demographic and wealth structures are "rearranging the education system" as Thailand enters an era where
The wealth of some is not wrong, nor is the desire to provide the best education for one's children. However, this simultaneously reflects a growing reality: a country with fewer children sees education becoming a clearer reflection of inequality—not because anyone intends it to be so, but because structural forces are driving it in that direction.
Sources: LH research, Ministry of Education
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