How Should Workers Prepare? When Layoffs Surge, Salaries Stall, and Thai Businesses Shift to Smaller Organizations

The Thai labor market in 2026 is facing a major test as recent data from Kasikorn Research Center reveals a startling trend: layoffs under the social security system (Section 33) average no less than 40,000 workers per month.

This follows the previous year’s total layoffs exceeding 530,000, a 20% increase. This is not merely a temporary staff reduction aligned with economic cycles but a "Structural Reset"—an unavoidable reconfiguration of work structures as Thai businesses transition into an era of "micro-organizations."

Beyond the clear layoff figures, another indication that Thai companies are "downsizing" is the widespread hiring freeze (Freeze Headcount). Many offices now, when staff resign, choose not to open new positions but redistribute duties among remaining employees.

The clearest sign of moving toward Lean Organization is proving that "fewer people can still keep operations running." Consequently, remaining employees face heavier workloads (multi-tasking) within limited resources.

The "Peanut Butter" salary raise trend as companies stabilize themselves.

On compensation, salaried workers face a Peanut Butter Spreading trend—distributing the salary raise budget thinly and evenly across all employees (e.g., 2-3%).

This strategy is used by companies to "control costs" and "reduce conflicts" during crises. Instead of offering large sums to retain star performers as before, firms choose overall stability to keep the organization afloat amid energy crises and economic volatility.

Top 5 industries with the highest layoffs: Who must urgently adapt?

Examining rising layoff statistics reveals key industries most impacted, with layoff shares as follows:

1. Manufacturing (24% share): Leading in layoffs, especially factories in electrical appliances, electronics, and garment sectors, facing twin storms of losing competitiveness to cheap imports and adopting automation to replace mass production labor.
2. Wholesale and retail (12% share): With consumer behavior nearly 100% online, brick-and-mortar stores have become more a "liability" than an "asset." Businesses are closing branches and reducing store staff.
3. Construction (9% share): Impacted by soaring building material costs tied to energy prices and household debt slowing real estate purchases, leading to fewer new projects and halted hiring.
4. Professional and technical activities (5% share): Though skill-based, the advance of Generative AI has begun replacing initial analysis, translation, and basic graphic tasks, prompting firms to employ fewer people who collaborate effectively with AI.
5. Transportation and warehousing (4% share): Despite e-commerce growth, energy costs from global crises force transport companies to merge or adopt automated warehouse systems to reduce labor costs.

Why must Thai businesses "shrink"? Behind the strategy of smaller organizations.

A deeper analysis shows that low overall economic growth compels businesses to revise management models, accelerated by three overlapping crises:

1. Cost crisis from geopolitics: Prolonged international conflicts cause volatile energy and logistics prices. Firms can no longer bear large "fixed costs" like high wages. Rightsizing becomes the primary strategy to preserve cash flow.
2. The AI boom and technological replacement: This year AI evolved from a "helper" to a "doer." Over 80% of Thai organizations use automation to replace routine, data analysis, and support tasks, reducing the need for large teams to a small group managing the systems.
3. Restructuring toward a "Lean Organization": Manufacturing (with the highest 24% layoff rate) and retail are shifting to project-based or outsourced employment to reduce long-term commitments and benefits, shrinking salaried positions in large organizations.

Survival plan for salaried workers when job security is no longer guaranteed.

Given the above, the key question is how to protect against and manage these risks. The answer lies in rigorous preparation both in "skills" and "finance" to navigate this crisis securely.

1. Skills: Become "workers irreplaceable by AI."

• Skill-Based Hiring: Modern firms hire for "skills," not "positions." We must rapidly develop complex problem-solving and people management skills, areas where AI remains weak.
• AI Collaboration: Stop resisting and start using AI as a productivity tool. Those who can work faster and better with AI are most likely to be retained in smaller organizations.

2. Finance: Build a thicker "financial shield."

• Cash is King: Increase emergency fund targets from 6 to 12 months to cover longer job search periods in a tight labor market.
• Financial Discipline: With high interest rates and living costs, immediately reduce consumer debt to increase liquidity and avoid large, long-term debts unless absolutely necessary.
• Income Diversification: Don’t rely solely on one employer. Developing secondary income from specialized skills provides the best "cushion" if your company downsizes.

The 40,000 layoffs per month serve as a reminder that the old work paradigm has ended. Thai businesses are transitioning to an era of "small but sharp," heavily reliant on technology. Salaried workers have no choice but to reset themselves before the system resets them out.

Sources: Kasikorn Research Center, jobsdb.com, Thai Financial Planners Association.

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