From the Tom Yum Kung Crisis to 40 Baht per Liter Oil: Revisiting the Life Crisis of Gen Y and the Illusion of Stability

“Some generations grow up with opportunities... but Gen Y grew up with crises.” Tags: ["Gen Y", "economic crises", "generation"]

This phrase may sound like a complaint, but it reflects the truth deeply felt by those born between 1980 and 1997. Many work hard, learn quickly, and adapt well, yet after many years, their savings seem stagnant. Why does the stability their parents spoke of always seem to move further away?

Looking at the life map of Gen Y reveals that their journey isn't a straight line but rather an obstacle race over economic pitfalls repeatedly.

How many economic crisis eras have passed?

• Going back to 1997’s Tom Yum Kung crisis, when we were still in primary or early secondary school, we might not have understood the term “floating the baht,” but we sensed it from our parents’ worried faces, the suspension of toys we used to get, or friends suddenly changing schools. That was our first reluctant lesson.
• Entering university as the digital age blossomed, we had hope for the new era. But in 2000, the Dot Com Crisis shattered IT market dreams, followed by outbreaks like avian flu in 2004 and political conflicts erupting in 2006, leaving long-lasting wounds to this day.

Gen Y’s youth was full of volatility, even before stepping out of university gates.

Starting work when the world was “stuck in the mud.”

A time that should have been “building a career” turned into “survival.”

• Just starting work in 2008, the Subprime Crisis spread worldwide. Multinational companies laid off employees, and anticipated bonuses vanished instantly.
• Trying to get established in 2011, just as we were gaining footing, the great floods hit Bangkok’s doorstep and industrial estates. Many lost newly built assets and had to “start over” as they entered their 30s.
• When savings began to accumulate, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic halted the world. Established stores closed, and last reserves were spent just to survive.

We were taught to “save,” but in reality, we barely had any long “upswing” periods to breathe. When the world collapsed, we collapsed too, spending years struggling back.

Thailand enters the era of “expensive oil”—fuel prices jump 6 baht per liter at once.

Just when we thought COVID was over, the economy recovering and politics stabilizing, reality proved otherwise with "inflation and fuel crises." As of 27 Mar 2024...

• Diesel prices soared to a record 38.94 baht per liter, requiring about 3,000 baht to fill a tank.
• Gasohol 91 priced at 40.68 baht per liter.
• Gasohol 95 costs 41.05 baht per liter.
• Gasoline nears 50 baht per liter.

These aren’t just numbers at the pump; they are a "storm" battering the wallets of salaried workers and SMEs nationwide. Experts warn the world stands at a crossroads with "no middle path." If the Middle East war prolongs and the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices may remain above $100 per barrel for a long time. For Thailand, which depends on energy imports accounting for 6.5% of GDP, this is bad news.

It is estimated that every $10 increase in global oil prices immediately drags Thailand’s GDP down by 0.15%. Consequences include:

1. Rising transportation costs: the cost of all goods will increase.
2. Food costs: restaurants may face up to 40% higher expenses.
3. Shrinking purchasing power: paying 3,000 baht to fill the tank leaves less money for other essentials.

The painful truth that “prices rise and never fall.”

More frightening than expensive oil is the "irreversible price mechanism." Many economists analyze that if fast food prices rise from 50 to 60 baht, they won’t return to 50 baht even when oil prices drop, because upstream costs have been reset system-wide.

For middle-aged Gen Y, burdened with aging parents and growing children, this is a harsh test. Annual salary increases of just a few percent are being squeezed by soaring living costs. Simply calculating the 6 baht per liter fuel increase could add over 7,000 to 10,000 baht annually in expenses without buying anything extra.

In an uncertain world, what does stability mean?

In summary, this oil crisis is shattering the "illusion" of job stability. Once-promising positions and expected bonuses may no longer suffice in a world where living costs fluctuate with global political situations.

Advice for Gen Y and SMEs at this hour might be...

• Avoid taking on large debts: If planning to finance a house, car, or expensive education, prepare for another "world collapse" scenario, as history shows this can happen anytime.
• Emergency savings are lifelines: In this era, survival belongs not to the richest but to those who "fall with a safety net."
• Adjust business models: For 2 million SMEs squeezed by costs, relying on government aid might be too slow. Effective cash flow management to extend liquidity is crucial.

Finally, the earlier question—why after so many years of work does it feel like always "starting over"—might not be because we’re incapable, but because we live in a fast-paced, turbulent era where old economic structures can't keep up or adapt quickly enough.

Sources: Ministry of Energy, Consumer Council, oil prices referenced from PTT (OR) and Bangchak, Bloomberg, SCB EIC, Kasikorn Research Center.

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