As living costs surge alarmingly and the notion of “stable employment” becomes merely a term of the past, many couples now find themselves discussing at the dinner table, pressured by extended family, whether they are truly ready to have children.
A recent analysis by Bnomics, Bangkok Bank’s economic research unit, clearly states that Thailand has fully entered an era of "Permanent Low Fertility."
In 2025, the number of newborns fell to a historic low of just 420,000, with projections showing a continued worrying decline.
This phenomenon is not merely about unwillingness to take on responsibility but reflects a calculated "risk" based on modern global standards: having a child means entering into a long-term, irreversible 20-year commitment.
Data from the Bank of Thailand and financial sources indicate that raising a child to a basic quality standard requires an average expenditure of at least 1.6 million baht, which is 6.3 times higher than the average per capita income in Thailand. For middle-class families seeking private or international education, this figure can soar to between 8 million and 37 million baht.
The financial math behind these figures reveals to working-age populations a significant "risk of illiquidity" throughout their life cycle if they choose to have children amid unstable incomes.
Estimated cumulative expenses for raising one child up to age 22, by socioeconomic level.
Beyond visible costs, there are "hidden expenses" increasing with the dynamics of 2026, such as rising child health insurance premiums due to pollution risks like PM2.5 and emerging diseases, as well as essential digital learning technologies including computers, high-speed internet, and future skills tutoring.
From the perspective of people in 2026, having children is increasingly viewed through an investor’s lens: if one’s "liquidity" is negative and "housing" remains an unattainable dream,
or one is already burdened with personal education debt, adding a new family member feels like risking a lifetime’s savings on an asset with unpredictable future returns.
A key reason women in 2026 perceive having children as the greatest risk is the "Motherhood Wage Penalty" — the income penalty associated with motherhood.
In-depth research in Thailand shows that female workers with children earn on average 7.6% less per month than those without children, with this gap widening up to 9.2% in the public sector. Over the long term, mothers reach their career peak later and often encounter a "glass ceiling" due to childcare responsibilities traditionally expected of women.
Studies indicate this penalty is most severe around age 33, a critical career growth period, with income impacts potentially reducing earnings by up to 22% compared to childless women.
This awareness leads women in 2026 to understand that having a child entails not only direct child-rearing costs but also a loss of "lifetime value" from reduced work participation—an economic loss difficult to accept amid an uncertain economy.
Conversely, although men do not face as explicit income penalties as women, contemporary Thai men face pressure as the "primary breadwinner" amid financial fragility.
Commonplace issues like cash flow shortages and reliance on digital loans to cover debts cause working-age men to view having children as an added responsibility beyond their capacity, increasing the risk of financial bankruptcy if unforeseen job disruptions occur.
In 2026, the Gen Z (ages 18-30) and Millennial (ages 31-45) cohorts have shifted perspectives from traditional status markers: their definition of "success" no longer centers on fixed assets like houses or cars.
Eighty-six percent of Gen Z see large debts as burdens rather than investments; instead, they measure success by "freedom and control over their destiny."
Meanwhile, 69% view business ownership as part of their dream, as it grants autonomy in decision-making.
Financial attitudes focused on "living for today" but balanced with future planning lead younger generations to invest in themselves and life experiences rather than accumulating wealth to pass on to heirs.
Surveys reveal 88% of Gen Z aim to start saving early for rapid wealth accumulation, not for children’s education but for "fast retirement" (FIRE Movement) and mental health benefits from financial security.
The "DINKs" (Double Income, No Kids) phenomenon has thus become the most economically stable family model in 2026, with average annual incomes around 4.8 million baht—1.2 million baht more than families with children. This financial freedom allows DINKs to enjoy premium consumption and travel without worries.
However, a challenge for this group is retirement planning, often neglected; 58% have yet to start serious retirement savings due to lack of urgency compared to parents.
While Thailand faces a demographic crisis with the lowest birth rates in 75 years and deaths surpassing births for five consecutive years, the government and political parties have introduced incentives like monthly subsidies of 1,200 to 5,000 baht and increased maternity leave rights.
However, analysis shows that "cash handouts" alone are insufficient to change contemporary attitudes, due to various limitations such as:
The failure to provide "systemic security" further fuels young people’s distrust in government policies, which they view as temporary measures unsuitable for the 20-year horizon they face in child-rearing responsibilities.
In summary, for people in 2026, "not investing" in having children may be the best risk management strategy to preserve personal stability and quality of life amid ongoing economic turmoil. This decision reflects a genuine personal survival instinct.
Sources: Bnomics by Bangkok Bank, Krungsri Bank, Chulalongkorn University, Mahidol University’s Institute for Population and Social Research, Sosa Foundation under the Royal Patronage, ttb, Bank of Thailand.
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